Tuesday, Mar 8, 2022 • 33min

Why Zelensky Poses a Unique Threat to Putin

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Since the start of the war in Ukraine, no single figure has antagonized President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as effectively or persistently as President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. His defiant videos and speeches have inspired the West into action and, by his own account, made him a target for Russian assassins. What is it about the comedian-turned-president and his rise to power that poses such a unique threat to Mr. Putin? Guest: Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief for The New York Times.

Talking about

Speakers

(2)

Anton Troianovski

Michael Barbaro

Transcript

Verified

Break

Michael Barbaro

00:33

I'm

Michael Barbaro

. This is The Daily.

00:36

President

Zelensky

has stood down, and stood up to, and stared down President

Putin

. President

Putin

must be astounded, must be surprised, must be really disappointed.

Michael Barbaro

00:52

Since the start of the war in

Ukraine

, no single figure has antagonized

Vladimir Putin

as effectively or persistently as Ukrainian

President Volodymyr Zelensky

01:05

Ukraine's

Volodymyr Zelensky

has emerged as a hero in his nation and around the world.

Michael Barbaro

01:10

Whose defiant videos and speeches have inspired the

West

and, by his own account, made him the target of assassination by

Russia

01:21

Zelensky

says he is

Russia's

number one military target and that his family is number two.

Michael Barbaro

01:27

Today, my colleague,

Moscow

bureau chief Anton Troianovski explains exactly what it is about

Zelensky

and his rise to power that poses such a unique threat to

Putin

. It's Tuesday, March 8th.

01:59

Anton, How did you first get to know

Volodymyr Zelensky

Anton Troianovski

02:03

I got to know him the way most people in both

Russia

and

Ukraine

got to know him, which is watching his stuff on TV. He had this Saturday Night Live type Show on Ukrainian TV that started airing in 2005, and he also had of course his breakout hit sitcom, called Servant of the People, which first aired in 2015, in which he plays a school teacher, who suddenly goes viral on social media and becomes the president of

Ukraine

02:54

And you can imagine that hilarity ensues.

Michael Barbaro

02:60

Of course. So, tell me more about this show.

Anton Troianovski

03:03

It's this show that, you know, combines kind of the feel good, we're doing the right thing attitude of the

West Wing

with the this is how the sausage is made comedy of

Veep

. One of the most famous moments in the show is where he is negotiating with an official from the

International Monetary Fund.

03:34

Where the

IMF

is trying to force

Ukraine

to meet all these conditions in order to get a loan that it needs. And

Zelensky

goes out with this

IMF

official to a press conference facing journalists and cameras and instead of giving the usual political lines about, you know, how we're going to be constructive etcetera,

Zelensky

just says in Russian, "What I want to say is you guys can go to hell" to the

IMF

Michael Barbaro

04:14

And Anton, why was a show about a Ukrainian politician, an accidental Ukrainian politician, something you were watching in

Russia

? And sounds like became a hit within

Russia

Anton Troianovski

04:27

Well, first of all, the show was in Russian.

Zelensky

is a native Russian speaker and that was the language that he used in his early and in fact through most of his career in show business.

Zelensky

grew up in

the Soviet Union

, in a working class Russian-speaking city in southeastern

Ukraine

04:46

And you know, in the decades after the collapse of

the Soviet Union

, the kind of entertainment market of

Russia

Ukraine

Belarus,

Kazakhstan

, the whole Russian speaking former

Soviet Union

remained very much intertwined.

05:04

Zelensky

actually spent a lot of his early career in

Moscow

. He toured as a comedian, he toured all around

Russia

and the former

Soviet Union

. You know, obviously if you're an Ukrainian comedian, you're probably looking to break into the Russian market, because it's much bigger.

05:23

So, you know, I think the fact that his show was popular in

Russia

as well as in Ukraine kind of showed how those countries remained intertwined culturally, even after they started drifting apart politically in the early 2000s.

Michael Barbaro

05:41

That's really interesting. Did the Russian-Ukrainian relationship ever appear within this show?

Anton Troianovski

05:48

It did. You know, certainly the complicated issues of language and identity in

Ukraine

very much did, you know. There's this memorable moment where

Zelensky's

character in the show, this school teacher, Holoborodko, he is a Russian speaker. And then he gets into office and he suddenly has to learn Ukrainian, because, you know Ukrainian politicians are expected to speak Ukrainian in public.

06:16

And then, you know, there's some humorous moments in which he's trying to learn the language and messing up the words. So yeah, you know, that kind of issue of Ukrainian identity was also something that he lampooned a bit in his show.

Michael Barbaro

06:34

So if you're a Russian, tv consumer, like say, you, Anton. It would be easy to identify with

Zelensky

and his character on the show, and it sounds like the show itself is reinforcing the idea that there's a kinship between

Ukraine

and

Russia

Anton Troianovski

06:51

Well, I mean, the show itself is not really all that much about the relationship between

Ukraine

and

Russia

, but if you look at the show kind of as a cultural object, you do see that, yes.

Zelensky

himself owes much of his career to

Russia

and the Russian market and the economic benefits of being successful in such a big country. The show itself is in Russian.

07:22

So yes, it's you know, it's something that in this region it's kind of almost unsaid. Like, yes, there are so many cultural and linguistic connections still between the countries of the former

Soviet Union

and certainly between

Russia

and

Ukraine

. But that does not of course necessarily mean that they have to have a political kinship as well.

Michael Barbaro

07:44

Right, but enough of a connection for this show to be a success.

Anton Troianovski

07:49

Yeah, totally. And you know, between this show and

Zelensky's

clips on his variety show going viral on

youtube

, he became a star in

Russia

as well as in

Ukraine

Michael Barbaro

08:01

So then how does it come to pass that this very successful actor runs for president of

Ukraine

Anton Troianovski

08:15

So this was 2019. In fact, he announced his candidacy on the New Year's Eve edition of his show, December 31, 2018.

08:34

So then he runs for president. I remember visiting

Kiev

at the time and talking to Western diplomats who were all feverishly catching up on his TV show, telling me this is just so strange, you know. It's becoming so hard to tell what's fact and what's fiction.

08:54

Zelensky

is making good on his promise to in Ukrainian politics upside down.

08:59

The campaign has been extraordinary, not least because Mr.

Zelensky

has avoided almost all of the things that candidates normally do in election.

Anton Troianovski

09:06

Just as an example, in the TV show,

Zelensky's

character, as he's running for president, takes to addressing voters doing these selfie videos and recording himself talking to regular Ukrainians. And then

Zelensky's

real life presidential campaign videos take a similar style, and are also interspersed with clips from Servant of the People, the show. So yeah.

Michael Barbaro

09:35

This is very, very meta.

Anton Troianovski

09:37

It was very meta.

09:38

This campaign has barely existed in real life. The only time the candidates have publicly exchanged views, by phone, was a disaster.

Anton Troianovski

09:52

Also, by the way,

Zelensky

is political party is called Servant of the People, as in the name of his TV show.

09:60

It's as if

Martin Sheen

ran for president and registered a party called The

West Wing

Anton Troianovski

10:06

We don't know how serious

Zelensky

was, of course, when he first ran, but the fact is he proved remarkably successful as a candidate, you know? Because he just had such a fresh approach to politics, such a useful approach. It was such a contrast to kind of the state and many believed corrupt political establishment of

Ukraine

. It was a really remarkable rise that he had.

Michael Barbaro

10:36

Well, explain that. What were his key messages in that 2019 campaign?

Anton Troianovski

10:42

Well, one which was very popular was opposing corruption, promising to be a more running, more honest and clean government. And then the second one was to end the war in Eastern Ukraine.

Zelensky

really drew a contrast with

Petro Poroshenko

, the incumbent.

10:59

Poroshenko

was someone with very close ties in Western governments and so

Zelensky

came in drawing a contrast to that.

Zelensky

talked about wanting to sit down with

Putin

directly and make a deal. You know, he signaled that he could be willing to compromise with

Putin

to basically stop the dying there in

Ukraine's

war with Russian backed separatists.

11:25

And that was something that actually, at the time, made a lot of Western diplomats and others nervous. People thought that

Zelensky

might end up being too soft on

Putin

and lack the experience to really be able to take him on.

Michael Barbaro

11:43

This is a fascinating piece of information in retrospect. hat 's Alinsky 's campaign for president made people think that he could be quite close to

Putin

and to

Russia

Anton Troianovski

11:54

Yes, you know,

Zelensky

ran with no political experience, certainly with no foreign policy experience. I remember I was there at one of his first meetings with foreign correspondents. We asked him, so what are you going to do? How are you actually going to end the war? And he didn't have any specific idea.

12:17

He spoke about sort of the idea that well, if he were to be able to sit down with

Putin

man to man, that they'd be able to make a deal and finally end this. So there was a lot of skepticism that

Zelensky

was the right man for the job, in particular when it came to foreign policy.

12:36

But in the broader public that message of ending the war was extremely popular. And it was even popular in the more

Russia

friendly corners of

Ukraine

in the south and in the east, where people sort of were positive about the idea of kind of rebuilding some ties to

Russia

13:08

A 41-year-old actor and comedian with no political experience whatsoever has won today's presidential election in

Ukraine

Anton Troianovski

13:17

He wins in a blowout, 73% of the vote.

Michael Barbaro

13:22

So just to recap. At the moment,

Zelensky

becomes

Ukraine's

president, overwhelmingly, given that vote tally. His relationship to

Russia

is as a celebrity, within

Russia,

because of his television shows. And a celebrity within

Russia

who has communicated that he thinks some form of peace with

Putin

and a good working relationship with

Putin

is possible.

Anton Troianovski

13:50

Yes, exactly.

Michael Barbaro

13:51

So, did

Putin

welcome

Zelensky's

victory? It would seem like he would.

Anton Troianovski

13:56

There was optimism in

Russia,

certainly. I mean, you could see it in the polls when people were asked their views on

Ukraine

. It really, there was a big jump upward. And in the

Kremlin

yes, also. I mean, the reaction was more muted, but clearly there was an idea there too, that this was a guy that they could work with, someone who might be in the

Kremlin's

kind of conspiratorial thinking, a guy who is less dependent on the

West

and might act more independently.

Michael Barbaro

14:31

So when does

Zelensky's

relationship with

Russia

as president start to change?

Anton Troianovski

14:37

I think it starts to change pretty quickly, in that first year, 2019. He meets with

Putin

in person at the end of 2019 in

Paris

. You know, they try to get some peace talks off the ground, but it becomes clear pretty quickly, especially as the pandemic comes around in 2020, that it is much easier said than done that you're going to make a deal with

Russia

15:04

And you could really see

Zelensky

becoming more and more frustrated. You know, there was one of the first points of tension where you could see there was a fork in the road and

Zelensky

when a certain direction, was when

Russia

was offering its Sputnik

Coronavirus

vaccine to

Ukraine

, which would have been a huge PR victory for the

Kremlin

Zelensky

had agreed to it, and he did not, he refused to do it. He held out for Western vaccines.

15:34

So that was one early sign of

Zelensky

taking a pro-Western route and being skeptical, being cautious of getting too close to

Russia

. And then he became more outspoken about wanting to join the

NATO

alliance.

Michael Barbaro

15:50

Which of course, as we now know, is seen as the ultimate act of provocation toward

Putin's

Russia

because he sees

NATO

as such a threat to his authority and his power.

Anton Troianovski

16:03

That's right. And I should add that in addition to being frustrated with

Russia

Zelensky

was also seeing an increasingly receptive attitude in the West. You know,

Zelensky

was elected in 2019 when Donald Trump was president, a man who was not all that interested in helping

Ukraine

to take a pro-Western path and also was not all that critical of President

Putin

16:29

But then

Biden

becomes president in January 2021. And he comes in, of course, with a message of much greater support for

Ukraine

to take a path that brings it closer to Western institutions and takes it farther away from

Russia

. So what happens is, just days after

Biden

is inaugurated,

Zelensky

cracks down on a business tycoon in

Ukraine

named

Viktor Medvedchuk

16:59

And that's important because

Medvedchuk

is basically the closest link remaining between

Ukraine

and the

Kremlin

Putin

is the godfather of

Medvedchuk's

daughter,

Medvedchuk

runs a political party that is fairly pro-Russian, he was running several TV channels that were pro Russian. And early last year

Zelensky

closes those tv channels starts an investigation into

Medvedchuk

17:31

Last May,

Medvedchuk

was put under house arrest under suspicion of treason. So

Zelensky

took all these steps that were very aggressive and that was something that clearly annoyed

Putin

greatly. And in retrospect was likely one of the factors that exacerbated the situation between

Ukraine

and

Russia

Michael Barbaro

17:56

So Anton, you're saying the shift in the US Presidency from Trump to

Biden

represented to

Zelensky

that he had more Western support and that basically he had some backup if he wanted to cross

Putin

. And so it's then that he starts taking more and more aggressive steps to move away from

Russia

Anton Troianovski

18:18

Exactly. And as his presidency progressed, he found himself more and more on a collision course with Vladimir

Putin

18:31

We'll be right back.

Break

Michael Barbaro

19:54

Putin

becomes more and more inflamed by

Zelensky

and by the possibility however remote that under

Zelensky

Ukraine

might end up joining

NATO.

Putin

begins amassing more and more troops on

Ukraine's

borders and eventually, of course, invading

Ukraine

. Given everything that you've just told us, what stood out to you about how

Zelensky

responded to that?

Anton Troianovski

20:20

Well,

Zelensky

responds showing himself as a master communicator, you know? Showing his knowledge of how to get the gravity of the moment across in a moment of crisis that in some ways recalls his TV show. Remember we were talking about the selfie videos that he was doing as a presidential candidate on his sitcom and then as a real life presidential candidate?

20:46

And recently he's been doing selfie videos from a city under siege, you know, in a T-shirt, unshaven, showing his people that he is there, he hasn't fled, he's ready to defend his country. And importantly too, he's not just speaking to the Ukrainian people, he's speaking to the Russian people.

21:08

Remember I mentioned that whole bid in his TV show where he's a Russian speaker trying to learn Ukrainian, because Ukrainian officials are expected to speak Ukrainian in public? Well, recently he's doing public addresses in Russian. He's been speaking his native Russian in order to reach Russians directly.

21:30

And the first such address was the night of February 23rd, in the early morning of the 24th, hours before

Russia

launched its attack.

Zelensky

posted a video to social media saying... I'm coming to you, to citizens of

Russia

, speaking your language, describing his attachment to

Ukraine

and really trying to counter

Putin's

fundamental message that

Ukraine

isn't even a real country.

22:11

So he says, for instance, you are told that this flame, referring to the war, will bring freedom to the Ukrainian people. But the people of

Ukraine

are already free. Hear our voices, we want peace. And he ends the speech by saying, do the people of

Russia

want war? He asks, I would like to be able to answer this, but the answer depends only on you, the citizens of the Russian Federation.

22:58

So he's telling Russians that

Ukraine

is not a threat to them, that even though these countries share all these ties, that doesn't mean essentially that

Russia

needs to invade the

Ukraine

in order to secure those ties.

23:12

Putin's

argument, as you know, is Ukrainians and Russians are one people.

Putin

claims that the

West

is controlling

Ukraine,

that the

West

is using

Ukraine

as a platform to attack

Russia

, basically taking away any agency from the Ukrainian people.

23:29

And here's

Zelensky

himself, in Russia, saying no, that's not true,

Ukraine

has made its own decision. And despite all those ties, despite all that kinship that of course,

Zelensky

himself and his personal story symbolizes,

Ukraine

has chosen a different path. That's

Zelensky's

basic argument.

Michael Barbaro

23:48

Right. And that's the attitude it seems of most Ukrainians, and why they would be compelled to take up arms and fight so forcefully against

Russia

. But I'm wondering, how's

Zelensky's

message in this speech goes over with Russians?

Anton Troianovski

24:03

Well, in the hours after that first speech, the invasion happens.

Russia

starts to bomb Ukrainian targets and Russian tanks move across the border into

Ukraine

Zelensky's

speech in Russian is ricocheting through Russian social media accounts, people are clearly seeing that in the country.

24:27

And then, that first day, February 24th, Russians take to the streets. Dozens of cities across the country. There are thousands of arrests off people who are doing things like chanting "no to war" on the streets of

Moscow,

Saint Petersburg

and elsewhere.

Michael Barbaro

24:54

Very much doing what

Zelensky

is, in a sense, asking them to do. Oppose this war.

Anton Troianovski

25:01

Exactly! I mean, it's a very, I think visceral feeling for many Russians that this war is an abomination. And certainly hearing

Zelensky

address them, you know, you can't discount the influence of that either.

25:13

So not long after that,

Zelensky

posts another one of these videos where he's basically saying, thank you for hearing us, to the Russian people. He says, to all the citizens of the Russian Federation who come out to protest, I want to say we see you. This means that you heard us. This means that you're beginning to trust us. Fight for us. Fight against the war.

Michael Barbaro

25:45

So,

Zelensky

is having a kind of running conversation with the Russian people, and knowing what you've told us about his celebrity within

Russia

and how Russians feel about him, that kind of running conversation must resonate in a unique and powerful way.

Anton Troianovski

26:03

That's right. I think for a certain segment of the population, his message is landing. And again, this isn't just a faceless president of another country. This is a film celebrity that a lot of people knew long before he became president.

26:20

And

Zelensky

becomes relentless about these communications in the days after the invasion. He's doing these speeches on video every day, multiple times a day. Of course, a lot of them are directed at Ukrainians, some are directed at the

West

, where he's saying that the

West

needs to do more to help

Ukraine

financially and militarily. But he also continues to direct some of these dispatches at Russians, who he refers to at one point as peaceful people of a belligerent state.

Michael Barbaro

26:52

It seems he's working very hard to separate the Russian people, in this moment, from their leader. He's saying, I'm speaking to you because

Putin

doesn't represent you. He's trying to drive a wedge between the leadership of

Russia

, in this moment, and the Russian people.

Anton Troianovski

27:07

Exactly.

Michael Barbaro

27:09

So how does the leader of

Russia

, Vladimir

Putin,

and the

Kremlin

respond to the

Zelensky

communications?

Anton Troianovski

27:16

Well,

Michael

, their message is

Zelensky

is totally out of his depth. They're saying he's controlled by Western puppet masters and what the

Kremlin

calls falsely Nazis in

Ukraine

Zelensky

also keeps saying he wants to talk to

Putin

directly. He wants to negotiate an end to the fighting. While the

Kremlin

has been saying there's nothing to talk about, sort of very dismissive of

Zelensky

as a leader and of the idea that he may have any influence.

27:48

And the fact is there are plenty of Russians who are willing to believe that narrative. I was actually, just before we got on, looking at some of the comments on Russian social media about the

Zelensky

videos. And one typical kind of comment is, oh, he's a great guy, cool, looks just like a typical Russian or Ukrainian working class man, but it's too bad that all those neo-nazis have gotten to him.

28:13

That's the

Kremlin

propaganda breaking through. So we have to be cautious not to overstate, I think, the impact of the strategy that

Zelensky

has taken.

Michael Barbaro

28:23

Understood. But it is clear that

Zelensky's

message, especially to Russians, is getting under Vladimir

Putin's

skin.

Anton Troianovski

28:30

Absolutely, I think it is. And I think that what

Zelensky

symbolizes is really an existential problem for the

Kremlin

. Which is that he's someone steeped in the Russian-speaking culture of the post soviet space. He comes from a Russian-speaking city in southeastern

Ukraine,

and he's someone who has built his career on his appeal in

Russia

and elsewhere in the former

Soviet Union

28:54

And despite all that, he wants to take his country on a pro Western path and does not want to subjugate to the dominance of Vladimir

Putin

. So that's what makes him such a potent symbol politically in the region across the former soviet space. And also, I think, makes him such a danger to

Putin

Michael Barbaro

29:15

And so is that why so many people believe that

Putin

wants

Zelensky

dead, wants to kill him?

Anton Troianovski

29:24

Yeah. And, you know,

Zelensky

talks about it himself all the time. He makes that a big part of his communications,

Zelensky

trying to show people that he's not afraid and trying to set an example, I think, for the people of

Ukraine

. And also show to the Russian people watching him, that he remains, and the Ukrainian people remain, defiant.

Michael Barbaro

29:45

Right. And each one of these videos is also a way for

Zelensky

to say quite simply, I'm still here. I'm still alive. I'm still in charge. Which is itself a kind of provocation to

Putin

Anton Troianovski

29:58

Exactly. Because, you know, the Russians, I think if you listen to Russian state TV and two Russian politicians, they clearly expected him to flee as soon as the war began.

Michael Barbaro

30:09

But I'm really curious. Doesn't everything we're talking about here make

Volodymyr Zelensky

, someone whose death might backfire on

Putin

Zelensky

has deep connections to the Russian people, his effectiveness at communicating to both them and Ukrainians and this moment. If

Putin

were to take

Zelensky

out, couldn't he then become a martyr and wouldn't that end up being bad for

Putin

Anton Troianovski

30:34

Well, I mean, this war has already been so shocking in so many ways that we can't really make predictions. And one of the things I think that's been shocking to the

Kremlin

is just how much of a determined and dignified leader

Zelensky

has emerged under this incredible pressure.

30:53

And so if

Zelensky

were to be killed, there would be a cost to

Putin

, he will have inspired Ukrainians. And I think just as importantly, he will have really, I think, succeeded in drawing this line between the

Kremlin

and the people of

Russia

, you know? In this incredible position where his country is under fire, under attack from cruise missiles and artillery and tanks.

31:25

And even as that's happening, he's reaching out to the Russian people next door and saying, we still kind of understand you, we don't throw you all into one pot with your leader. That message is resonating right now in this time of crisis, and no matter what, live or die, that'll be a big part of

Zelensky's

legacy.

Michael Barbaro

31:52

Anton, thank you very much. We appreciate it.

Anton Troianovski

31:58

Thank you Michael.

Michael Barbaro

32:12

On Monday night, in his latest self recorded video,

Zelensky

spoke to Ukrainians from his presidential office in

Kiev

, the first time he has appeared there since the war began.

32:32

In remarks seemingly aimed at

Putin

Zelensky

declared that he was not afraid of anyone and rebuked Russian forces for attacking civilian sites, including a bread factory. Think about it, he said: to fire at the bread factory. Who could you be to do that?

33:13

We'll be right back.

Break

Michael Barbaro

33:47

Here's what else you need to know today.

33:51

On Monday, the state of

Florida

said it would recommend that healthy children not be vaccinated against

COVID-19

directly contradicting guidance from federal health officials. The recommendation was approved by the state's controversial surgeon general, a Republican appointee who has expressed skepticism of the vaccine's effectiveness.

34:16

Is that a good policy?

34:18

Absolutely not. Let me just-

Michael Barbaro

34:21

Ask about the decision, White House Press Secretary

Jen Psaki

expressed alarm, citing data that shows unvaccinated teenagers are far likelier to be hospitalized with

Covid

than vaccinated teenagers.

34:37

So it's deeply disturbing that there are politicians peddling conspiracy theories out there and casting down on vaccinations when it is our best tool against the virus and the best tool to prevent even teenagers from being hospitalized.

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