Monday, Jan 31, 2022 • 35min

We Need to Talk About Covid, Part 2: A Conversation with Dr. Fauci

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America, it seems, might be at a turning point in how we think about and respond to the pandemic. Yet, the U.S., at this moment, is still in the midst of crisis — thousands of people are in hospital and dying every day. In the second part of our exploration of the state of the pandemic, we speak with Dr. Anthony Fauci about the conditions under which we could learn to live with the virus and what the next stage of the pandemic looks like.
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Speakers
(3)
Michael Barbaro
Anthony Fauci
Lindsey Graham
Transcript
Verified
Michael Barbaro
00:00
From
New York Times
, I'm
Michael Barbaro
. This is the daily last week we began a two part look at the debate in
America
over whether it's time to start thinking about
COVID
in a new way. Today, in part two, we put that question to Dr.
Anthony Fauci
. It's Monday, January 31.
Share
00:38
So Dr..
Fauci
, thank you for making time for us as always.
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Anthony Fauci
00:41
My pleasure. Good to be with you.
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Michael Barbaro
00:44
So we wanted to talk to you because it feels like we might be at a potential turning point and how we think about and respond to this pandemic and how we learn to live with it rather than having it be a life-altering in some cases life-dominating virus that people desperately try to avoid and a few things prompted that question in our minds and I want to walk through them very briefly.
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01:09
The first is that at this point, every person over the age of five in the
US
who wants a vaccine can now have one and most Americans are now vaccinated.
Share
01:20
Second,
Omicron
is hugely contagious but meaningfully milder than previous variants. So many people have accepted that infection is likely in their life.
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01:31
Third, the costs of our current approach are becoming very high, there's a well documented crisis of childhood education and childhood mental health for example.
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01:42
And fourth, and finally, you yourself said about a week ago that we're heading into a phase of this pandemic where it resembles and this is a quote from you, "The infections that we've learned to live with". End quote.
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01:56
So given all that, let me put this to you very simply is it time to perhaps start treating
COVID
a lot more like the flu. And I didn't pick the flu by accident because statistically speaking among vaccinated people, even among people 65 older, the
Omicron
variant of
COVID
seems to present less danger than a normal flu.
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Anthony Fauci
02:18
Okay, so everything you said is correct except a very minor, minor misquote of me. I did not say that we were already at the point.
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Michael Barbaro
02:27
No, no. I said we will, we will... The quote was we're heading into phase. Not that we're there.
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Anthony Fauci
02:33
Yeah, I'm hoping that we are. So everything you said has a degree of validity in what we're seeing. One of the things is that you have to look at that
Michael
has the best-case scenario and the best-case scenario would be all the things you said, but also not as many as we want, but a considerable proportion of the population is vaccinated and you have a substantial number of people that have already been infected and recovered.
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03:02
Hopefully many of them will also get vaccinated. So you'll have a degree of baseline protection in the community that even though we will likely have other variants.
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03:17
The chances are that there's enough background immunity that you will not have the kinds of surges that disrupted us and have continued to disrupt us getting back to what you said about getting to some form of normality. That would happen if - and I think it's an if but it's not necessarily an unlikely - if we do continue to vaccinate people and we do implement other mitigations like frequent testing to let people know if they are infected or spreading it.
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03:56
The proper wearing of masks where appropriate and antiviral drugs for those who do get infected and are at a higher level of risk. If we had all those, then this virus could integrate itself into the background of viruses that we do deal with. We don't like them. They do cause some deaths.
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04:18
They do cause some morbidity and hospitalization. But we live with respiratory syncytial virus and para influenza and even influenza which is much more seasonal as it were. So that's why I say I'm cautiously optimistic.
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04:35
Even though we must be prepared for the worst case scenario and the worst case scenario would be just when we think things are going in the right direction, we get another variant that eludes that background immunity in the community and that might be very pathogenic. I hope that's not the case. I don't think it will be but we have to be prepared for it.
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Michael Barbaro
04:57
Okay, so just to go back to my original question, it sounds like you're saying we are not at the phase. We are not at the moment where we can start thinking about treating this virus like those other viruses like the flu.
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Anthony Fauci
05:13
Yeah,
Michael
. I want to be precise about it because I know people take every word we say uh and analyze it. We should be thinking about that. Are we there yet? In other words are we at a point? Well we can say we can now live with this virus when you have 150,000 people in the hospital, 2,200 deaths a day and still 600,000 new infections. We are not there yet.
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05:42
Clearly in certain regions of the country and likely in other regions I think it's gonna be a little bit more painful in those states and regions that have a low level of vaccination. Because if you look at the people who are getting hospitalized now it's overwhelmingly weighted towards those who are not vaccinated compared to those who are vaccinated and boosted.
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06:07
But having said all that we still could be going in the right direction and I believe that we are look at the data, look at
New York City
, the upper northeast corridor, the upper
Middle West
. We have a peek of the um micron and is starting to come down and there's indication that inherently or because of background immunity it does not appear to be as severe as what we've seen with
Delta
.
Share
06:33
So if you put those two things together or three things background immunity, a virus that appears to be less severe and a virus that has peaked and is starting to come down. Do we have indications that we might be heading there?
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Michael Barbaro
06:50
The answer is yes, but Dr..
Fauci
what I'm hearing you saying is that a key part of this hoped for future state that might not be so far away involves greater levels of vaccination. But is that really reasonable to ask vaccinated Americans to wait for any longer? And is there any reason to believe that it will happen?
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07:12
Americans have had many, many months at this point to get vaccinated. Their resistance is not passive, right? And many, many cases it's deeply held skepticism or its lack of faith in the vaccine. Are you saying that we need to wait for that to change and for meaningfully more Americans to be vaccinated? I guess. I'm skeptical that that's anywhere in our near future,
Michael
.
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Anthony Fauci
07:34
No, I think we're moving towards this ability to quote live with the virus as it were. As long as the virus is at a level that it isn't disrupting our society the way it is now. I believe the people who are vaccinated If we get the overwhelming majority of them boosted and we only have about 50% of them boosted that would hasten and ensure us getting there.
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08:03
So the bottom line and short answer to your question is that we're going to get there I believe, because once you accumulate enough background immunity whether it's helped more by more people getting vaccinated or more people getting boosted sooner or later?
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08:21
We will get to that point, I just hope that more people will get vaccinated to get us there more quickly and with more confidence that it will be a situation that we will be able to live with as we live with many other viruses that are there. But that don't really impact the way we live our lives.
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Michael Barbaro
08:42
So just to be super clear, this future state does or does not depend on the substantial percentage of Americans who are vaccine resistant, skeptical. What have you somehow changing their minds and being vaccinated?
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Anthony Fauci
08:57
I don't think it depends on them. I think it would be facilitated if people wound up getting vaccinated. I think to be realistic, it's very clear that there is a hardcore group of people who do not want to get vaccinated. I think people who are less likely to push back or those who have been vaccinated and we're asking them to get boosted.
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09:23
I think we can appeal successfully to them better then appealing successfully to those who up to this point have made it very clear they don't want to get vaccinated. So I don't think in the strict sense of what I understand you're asking
Michael
. It absolutely depends on those people getting vaccinated. It would make it much easier if they did, but we're going to get there but much slower, that's what I'm saying.
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Michael Barbaro
09:52
Okay, so given the incredibly low rates of hospitalization and death among the vaccinated and the low risk to unvaccinated children, I just want to be clear for those of our listeners who are vaccinated and even boosted, Are you saying that this remains to some degree a story about those Americans needing to in some cases dramatically alter their behavior and change their lives to protect Americans who have chosen not to be vaccinated. I think some people do see it that way.
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Anthony Fauci
10:22
The more vulnerable people that are out there, the more the general community has to act in a more cautious, restricted manner, the less vulnerable people out there as a community, we would not have to work and act in a more restricted way. We all are connected with each other.
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Michael Barbaro
10:45
Right, okay, so... because it sounds like you're starting to see a way to this new phase and that you're beginning to envision it and with all the caveats you just mentioned about why we're not quite there and what it would take to get there. We want to start to talk about what it's going to look like to enter this new phase of the pandemic one. That's it feels less like an emergency. And we want to talk about it in a pretty practical way.
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11:16
We started this conversation with our colleague
David Leonhardt
late last week. On a practical level, what will the next phase of this look like the phase where perhaps our collective guard starts to come down and our behaviors change? Can you just start to spell that out?
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Anthony Fauci
11:31
Sure. I think you've already started describing what I think is going to happen and that is we will have a gradual diminution of the high alert as it were. And what I mean by that is that we will have and we're already there literally a billion tests available for people so that they could very easily test themselves and families so you could feel much more comfortable when you're at gatherings, dinners, social events, which we don't have that right now.
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12:03
We have a lot of anxiety associated with mingling and indoor congregate settings. I believe we'll start to see much more being open about indoor situations be they theaters, be they restaurants, be they schools, be they workplaces.
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12:21
That doesn't mean that it's going to be exactly the way it was three or four years ago. But I think when it comes to travel school workplace entertainment, we'll start to see a gradual return to normal even though normal will not be exactly the way it was before all of this.
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Michael Barbaro
12:42
Let's dig into that a little bit more
Dr. Fauci
you mentioned schools and I want to ask about that very specifically because I want to understand how things will change in spaces that have been the most disrupted over the past two years and obviously schools are one of them.
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12:55
So in this new phase should the expectation be that all schools stay open even if there's an infection or an exposure given the relatively low risk of severe illness to kids and vaccinated adults, teachers and the severe educational and emotional costs two kids have remotely and the disruption represents to their parents.
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Anthony Fauci
13:18
You know, I think in general the answer to that should be "Yes". But every time I give a definitive answer, like yes or no, it has the danger and I understand that I'm living with that of being taken completely out of context and used in a different way. But let's pursue this with a degree of openness and honesty and rationale.
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13:38
The idea is that if we get more and more people vaccinated and you have the overwhelming proportion of teachers and personnel associated with the school vaccinated, you have enough tests that when one or more or several of them get infected, which they will because there will be breakthrough infections, even though people are vaccinated and boosted testing will be a very important component of that.
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14:08
Children five and older are eligible to be vaccinated. We've got to do much better in getting those children vaccinated data are being collected right now with children six months through four years. So hopefully within a reasonable period of time measured in months at the most, we will have vaccines available virtually for all children who will be going to school and preschool.
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14:40
If we have that, then I do think what you're saying is not only feasible, it is likely that you have a situation where you could have all the schools open and that when a child or a couple of kids in school get infected, you don't have to shut anything down, you'll just continue namely maximum protection and care for the kids at the same time that you have an uninterrupted school curriculum and year.
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Michael Barbaro
15:10
Got it. But you think vaccinations are prerequisite for?
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Anthony Fauci
15:12
I do, I mean, I mean you're talking about, "Why don't we turn the clock back to way, way before
COVID-19?
Vaccinations for children for the common childhood diseases, which is universal in this country is one of the reasons why pre
COVID
never got involved in shutting down daycare centers or schools when a child would call in and or a parent would call in sick for the child, we can get to the pre
COVID
level, if we do the things that you and I have just been discussing.
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Michael Barbaro
15:52
Well, let me just represent a parent with a child in schools who does not want to wait any longer for this moment to arrive.
Dr. Fauci
a parent who says, look, "Vaccinations of teachers should obviously be mandatory, children are at very low risk vaccinated or not".
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16:08
With those realities in place, the trade-offs, the costs of going to remote learning or quarantining for days, every time it could test positive. They are already not worth it. If I'm this parent low risk, high, high cost and so the feeling is We need to get rid of these 5, 10-day mandatory quarantines and we need to do it now. What do you say to that?
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Anthony Fauci
16:30
Well, be careful because I want to make sure, I think you said something uh, inadvertently incorrectly. You don't quarantine a kid who tests positive, you isolate him, You quarantine the kids that are in contact with that person. And what the
CDC
is saying, we can facilitate keeping schools open by certainly always isolating the truly infected child.
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16:59
But instead of sending home for five days, the person who was exposed tests that person to stay. If he's negative, he can come to school the next day interesting.
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Michael Barbaro
17:12
And you've now mentioned a couple of times the abundance of testing that will want to be present in this next phase of the pandemic. I'm curious and I'm sure you've thought about this does more. Testing results in more confirmed
COVID
cases in a way that might actually exacerbate the already difficult situation at schools right now. I feel like there's relatively strong incentive not to get tested because a positive
COVID
test leads to a kid missing several days of school.
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17:42
And I know parents who have it admitted this to me, I'm not gonna name names, but they have suspected their child is
COVID
positive, but they have not tested them because the child seems fine and they don't want to miss classes for the child and work for the parents that's unfortunate and that's a poor public health practice?
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Anthony Fauci
18:00
That's a poor public health practice. You do not want a child who's known to be infected to be in a classroom. You want that child five days isolated.
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Michael Barbaro
18:11
Okay, let's turn to offices
Dr. Fauci
lots of Americans still work from home on one of them. It's a privilege. But it's been the case since March of 2020. Almost two years in in this new phase that we keep talking about and and are defining Is there any public health reason to keep having so many people working from home?
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Anthony Fauci
18:34
No, I think the workplace is one of those locations and venues that will be subject to gradual and hopefully within a reasonable time, complete normalization. What's going to happen very likely is that there was an experiment, an unwilling experiment as it were that has been done over the last two years, that a lot of people who are in jobs have found that they could function as well, if not better virtually from home.
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19:05
So, I don't think it's going to be exactly the way it was
pre-COVID
. But I think for those who want to and should because of the nature of their jobs, be in the physical presence of the workplace. I believe you're going to see that happen very, very quickly if we get back to the area and the type of situation that we have with living with the virus.
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Michael Barbaro
19:30
And what about masks? Will office workers for example or teachers in schools or students in schools, will they be required to wear masks? Should they be required to wear masks in this phase that we've been...
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Anthony Fauci
19:42
Again,
Michael
, you've got to make sure you define so that it doesn't get misinterpreted what we mean by this phase. If this phase means...
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Michael Barbaro
19:54
Young people vaccinated...
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Anthony Fauci
19:55
Right. Exactly. The level of infection is so low...
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Michael Barbaro
19:58
Testing expands...
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Anthony Fauci
19:59
Right. And that it is not a threat. I do not see that we will be indefinitely in a mask requirement situation.
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Michael Barbaro
20:10
Got it. So mask wearing may not be an indefinite part of our culture and our new life at some point in the next few months.
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Anthony Fauci
20:20
Right.
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Michael Barbaro
20:20
Okay.
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Anthony Fauci
20:22
Be careful about in the next I'm sorry for being So we're checking on you,
Michael
...
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Michael Barbaro
20:28
It's a mushy concept of what this next phase.
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Anthony Fauci
20:30
Is it maybe a couple of months? It may be longer than a couple of months. Okay?
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Michael Barbaro
20:44
We'll be right back.
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20:54
We've been talking so far about practical questions of how we might change our relationship to
COVID
in the next era of the pandemic. And I want to turn to the idea that there's a psychological level to this when we had our colleague,
David Leonhardt
and
Dr. Fauci
, we talked about a poll of the times conducted that found different groups of people express different views about
COVID.
And some of those views in his words can be disconnected from the science, in some cases they can even be kind of irrational given the scientific data we've accumulated over the past two years.
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21:24
For example, young people, the poll found are as worried about getting sick from
COVID
as older Americans, which doesn't make a lot of sense since they face a lot less risk, and unvaccinated Americans are less worried about getting
COVID
than boosted Americans. Again, that doesn't make sense because they are at greater risk. And after we analyze this poll and look at the party affiliation of those who participated in it.
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21:48
What
David
told us is that a major reason for this is political identification basically tribalism. I'm a democrat. I take the virus very seriously. I care about preventing spread. I live cautiously or I'm a
Republican
and I won't let the virus dominate my life.
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22:02
"I won't live in fear". This is a generalization, but this was born out in the pool. Can I just get your reaction to that? Does that ring true? That tribalism, that political identification is coloring people's view of this pandemic in a way that can be disconnected from science.
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Anthony Fauci
22:17
You know, I think
David
hit the nail right on the head. It is very troubling that this is the case. But I think the polls are telling us what the reality is. I think if you go back and look at that, you have to scratch your head and say how the heck did this happen. You know, people are going to do analysis of this for years and years to come.
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22:40
So I don't have a ready explanation for it except to say that it is in general, unfortunate that that is going on because that is one of the things that's getting in the way of our getting this outbreak in a comprehensive way under control, I have often said, and I'll say it again that we seem to not be acting on the principle that the common enemy is the virus, not each other.
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23:10
And it's almost like you're in a war and we have the people who are the potential victims of the war, fighting with each other about how you're going to address the common enemy, which is the virus, not each other.
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Michael Barbaro
23:23
I think some people based on this pole, the times did mostly
Republicans
, but maybe a growing segment of the country as well, not
Republican
, would say perhaps this isn't a war. Maybe this used to be a war.
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23:34
Maybe we used to be at war with a virus, but it doesn't feel like a war anymore because the war implies defeating an enemy and where we are at now, for many is it's time to learn to live with the enemy, right, or reframing. And that actually to continue to treat this as a war against
COVID
is to perhaps further divide this country because if we don't find some middle ground here, we're going to exacerbate the politics surrounding this virus.
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23:59
And I know
Dr. Fauci
your job is to be a scientist not a politician. But do you worry that by not saying to the country, look I understand you live in a part of the country where risk is very low right now. You've been doing this for two years.
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24:11
I get it. You're gonna start modifying your behavior that by not doing that. You may seem to reject the reality for millions of Americans and that could exacerbate the divisions that we're talking about.
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Anthony Fauci
24:23
You're right. I have said and continue to say that currently we are still at war With the virus because we have 2,300 deaths a day, 156,000 hospitalizations and we have the danger of new variants occurring.
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24:40
Are we heading towards the point where we may be able to live with the virus As we've lived with other viruses like RSV and para-flew and flew. At that point you're right, we can't continue to have the metaphor. Then we're at war with the virus because being at war with the virus, particularly when you have two opposing ideological groups that have very very different viewpoints on that.
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25:09
That that could exacerbate the differences. So I don't think we're gonna cure the differences. They anti date and permeate and will go on beyond
COVID
those ideological differences. But you make a good point that there will be a time less looking it as a war against the virus, but an armistice and a truce.
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Michael Barbaro
25:31
Let me keep pushing on this. It's very important. It's very fascinating. And let's focus for just a moment on
Democrats
because many
Republicans
are ready for this pivot that were theorizing about here, this change in approach.
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25:42
A meaningful number of
Democrats
we have found in this pool are are not as ready. Their anxiety levels remain high. And what they will tell you is that they're not ready to lower their guard. Because for two years, they've been told by many people, including
Dr. Fauci
, you that they have to behave cautiously for the sake of others, not just themselves for the very young for the very old for the unvaccinated, the immuno-compromised...
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26:04
So does entering this new portion of the pandemic mean, eventually changing that mode of thinking and how would that work while keeping the risks of those other people in mind?
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Anthony Fauci
26:18
Right. So,
Michael
, I think that I know you're saying it, not me again, just making sure I don't get out of context here that most or in general...
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Michael Barbaro
26:27
Many...
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Anthony Fauci
26:28
Many
Democrats
feel still very cautious about lowering their level of risk mitigation And that in some respects, and in fact, in many respects, where we are at this moment with 2,300 deaths a day, it makes sense.
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26:49
I believe, and again, I don't know for sure, but I believe that those people who appear to be quite cautious now in relinquishing their mitigation approach will come along and enter a world approaching normality. I don't think that we've created an immutable group of highly, highly anxious people. I believe that they are going to turn around and welcome the degree of normality at an appropriate time. But...
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Michael Barbaro
27:28
That's interesting.
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Anthony Fauci
27:29
So,
Michael
, nothing is absolute. But in general terms, the people who are concerned are really in fact abiding by sound true and tried scientific principles. "Do vaccines work? Are they safe? " Yes, they get vaccinated. "Are masks shown to be protective and to have an impact on spread? " Yes, they wear a mask is avoiding congregate settings indoors in an unmasked way risky. Yes, they don't do that.
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28:04
So what I believe is going to happen is that the people who are still more risk averse based on sound scientific principles. When the science tells us that that risk is much, much lower, then I believe that the people right now who are being more risk-averse than others are gonna come along and acclimate themselves to the new normal.
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Michael Barbaro
28:33
Do you foresee a moment when you personally may have to go out - it sounds like you're starting to envision this and say to the public - "I have reached the conclusion, the moment has come where the cost of caution now looks too high. " The risks are low enough and you're gonna have to kind of give people, I wonder if you think about it this way. Kind of permission to stop being so anxious and to lower their guards. Is that the message you have perhaps envisioned in your head?
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Anthony Fauci
29:04
Absolutely. I wouldn't use the word permission that has certain connotations that I don't like. But I would say that I would be certainly articulating that when the science gets to the point to get the message to the american public.
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29:20
When the science leads us to that conclusion, I would be the first and most enthusiastic person to get out there and say, "Okay, we're at a point that we can essentially turn that balance around", and make sure we don't let the things that we're doing to mitigate interfere with some of the even more important things when the science tells us that were there, I will be very, very vocal about that. Today we are not there yet.
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Michael Barbaro
29:52
Return to this idea of whether we're in a war and whether that war is with
COVID
or with each other. It's occurring to me as we're talking
Dr. Fauci
, that you are not at all describing a world in which the
COVID
cautious are at war with the
COVID
skeptical or those who are just ready to resume quote unquote normalcy.
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30:11
Because what you really keep coming back to as the thing that's preventing us from returning to normal is these 2,200 people dying? These tens of thousands in the hospital. And again, these are wildly disproportionately the unvaccinated in that sense, in the way you're describing this. Aren't the
COVID
cautious, actually fighting kind of their own war against
COVID
, but one which, ironically is really on behalf of the
COVID
skeptical and those who don't think that that level of caution is necessary or useful at this point.
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30:46
The very people who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the government and with figures like you for not telling them "You're right. It's time for us to just start living with
COVID"
.
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Anthony Fauci
30:58
Yeah. Well, the answer is, "Yeah, it's a complicated issue and there's no easy answer to it". So I don't really want to give you an answer to that
Michael
. It's just too complicated. I'm sorry, I love you. You're great.
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Michael Barbaro
31:11
But no, I mean, I guess what I'm getting at is the politics of
COVID
are very weird and they bounce back and they swerve and they do things that we didn't expect.
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Anthony Fauci
31:24
Exactly. Well, that'll go along with. They are they're very weird. They are.
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Michael Barbaro
31:28
It's funny to me that you didn't want to engage the question because basically the question is, I think in some ways kind of simple, the vaccinated are cautious on behalf of the unvaccinated. Who resent the caution and just I think that it reinforces their view that the whole policy is nuts.
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Anthony Fauci
31:45
No, you're right. It's a circular. I don't know what the right word, but there's something circular about it that you're describing, which is true is what you're saying. That the cautious of being cautious a lot because the uncautious or not being cautious and uncautious, resent the caution of the cautious right now. If you talk about circular, that's really circular, right?
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Michael Barbaro
32:15
It's really complicated. And it means that you end up speaking to one group, triggering the other all the name of public health and leading to a tremendous amount of frustration.
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Anthony Fauci
32:24
Yes, I think that we all can agree upon. It's very frustrating.
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Michael Barbaro
32:28
Alright,
Dr. Fauci
, thank you as always for your time. You're very generous.
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Anthony Fauci
32:33
It's always nice to be with you,
Michael
. Thank you. Take care.
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Michael Barbaro
32:36
Okay, bye bye.
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33:13
Here's what else you need to know today. On Sunday,
Republican
Senator
Lindsey Graham
of
South Carolina
seemed to endorse one of
President Biden's
potential choices to replace Stephen briar on
the Supreme Court
, raising the possibility that
Biden's
nominee could win bipartisan support.
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Lindsey Graham
33:35
I can't think of a better person for president,
Biden
to consider for
the Supreme Court
than
Michelle Charles
.
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Michael Barbaro
33:42
In an interview with
CBS News
Graham
repeatedly praised
South Carolina
Federal District Judge
Michelle Childs
, who the White House has said is under consideration.
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Lindsey Graham
33:53
She has wide support in our state. She is considered to be a fair-minded, highly gifted jurist. She's one of the most decent people I've ever met.
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Michael Barbaro
34:04
Graham's
views are especially notable because he is a member of the
Senate Judiciary
committee which must approve any
Supreme Court
nominee. In the interview with CBS
Graham
said it was time for a black woman to be on
the Supreme Court
.
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Lindsey Graham
34:21
Put me in the camp of making sure the court and other institutions look like
America
.
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Michael Barbaro
Anthony Fauci
Lindsey Graham
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