Monday, Mar 21, 2022 • 19min
Could the U.S. See Another Covid Wave?
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More than two years into the pandemic, coronavirus infections are surging in China and nations in Europe. The reason: BA.2, a highly contagious version of the Omicron variant.
At the same time, the United States is doing away with a number of pandemic restrictions, with mask mandates ending and businesses no longer requiring proof of vaccination from customers.
We explore what these BA.2 surges look like and ask whether the U.S. is ready for a new wave of Covid cases.
Guest: Apoorva Mandavilli, a science and global health reporter for The New York Times.
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Apoorva Mandavilli
Sabrina Tavernise
Michael Slackman
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Verified
Break
Sabrina Tavernise
00:33
From
the New York Times
, I'm Sabrina Tavernise
, this is The Daily
.Share
00:39
More than two years into the pandemic,
Coronavirus
infections are surging in China
and Europe
at precisely the time that restrictions in the US
have fallen away. Today, my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli
on whether the US
is ready for a new wave of cases and whom it would most likely affect.Share
01:08
It's Monday, March 21st.
Share
01:19
Over the first thing I want to ask you. It's really been on my mind and I think probably it's been a lot of people's minds. Where are we in the lifespan of this pandemic? Are we officially done with a pandemic?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
01:33
I know what you want me to say but I think the pandemic is done for some of us. That's the best I can do. I think the pandemic is still very much alive and happening in many parts of the world. I mean look at places like China.
Share
01:50
China is facing its worst outbreak of
COVID
since the start of the pandemic. The country reported more than 3500 new cases on Monday alone.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
01:58
That's actually a very high number for
China. China
is from the very beginning has had the zero Covid
approach. You know, they just put in draconian measures every time there was even the whiff of a surge.Share
02:09
Millions of people are under lockdown again in
China
after the country saw new cases across several big cities.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
02:16
And they've locked down entire communities, entire cities.
Share
02:19
Some of those include the capital,
Beijing
, Shenzhen
and Shanghai
.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
02:24
That thought they were completely done, they had it all under control.
Share
02:27
The industrial city of
Shenzhen
has fully closed down public transport driven by a flare of cases among factory workersShare
Apoorva Mandavilli
02:35
And yet they're seeing massive surges right now.
Share
02:37
China
has recorded its first two Covid
related deaths since january of last year.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
02:42
And
Hong Kong
is the worst hit.Share
02:45
It's feared that
Hong Kong
could run out of coffins within days.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
02:49
Hong Kong
has actually the highest deaths per capita of any place in the world right now.Share
02:54
Cases in
China
are the highest that we've seen since early 2020 and it's really spread out this stealth Omicron variant across the country.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
03:10
So what's driving the spike in cases there?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
03:12
So there are a couple of factors that are contributing to their surge. One is that they're dealing with a very contagious variant called BA2.
Share
03:20
Few weeks as we see this sub variant BA2 starting to emerge.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
03:25
BA2 is actually a version of Omicron which is a variant that we saw here over the winter.
Share
03:30
So what is the BA2 variants?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
03:32
The version we saw is called BA1.
Share
03:34
We know it's a subvariant of the BA1 variant and we know that variant well because it was the cause of the most recent surge here in
the United States
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
03:41
And this new one, BA2 is even more contagious.
Share
03:44
Vaccinations for more people before the highly contagious BA2 variant hits hard.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
03:50
And we know that the one we saw was already quite contagious.
Share
03:53
Now we're still in the early stages with BA.2 but the evidence so far shows that it doesn't appear to be more severe than Omicron. And research shows that the current vaccines do offer good protection against it.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
04:04
Got it. So one of the reasons these surges are happening is that it's just a much more contagious version of the vir Us? What are the other reasons?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
04:14
The other thing that's going on in
China
is that because they've had this zero Covid
policy, there are large swaths of the population that don't have any immunity to the virus at all. And even though China
did buy some time and vaccinate quite a lot of its people, there are quite a number of the most vulnerable that are not vaccinated.Share
04:36
So for example, in some parts of
China
, especially in rural China
. More than 50% of people over 70 are unvaccinated. And so that's tens of millions of people in China
who are still vulnerable to this virus. That's a big part of the surge.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
04:52
So the virus could just rip through the population, it sounds like. I mean zero
Covid
was pretty effective at keeping hospitalizations and deaths low at the beginning. But it also meant that a lot of people were never exposed to the virus.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
05:06
That's right and in
Hong Kong
it was very difficult to convince people to get vaccinated because they didn't see any cases. And there was a lot of vaccine hesitancy among older people. And so in Hong Kong
, just a very large percentage of people over 80 are unvaccinated and that's what's driving the very high debts that Hong Kong
is seeing.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
05:26
So you said these surges are happening in many parts of the world. Where else are we seeing a rise in cases?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
05:32
Europe
is also seeing a surge and also because of the same variant BA2. So there are several countries actually that are seeing a rise most strikingly Germany, seeing a pretty steep rise in cases but also France
, Switzerland
, Italy
and the UK
, they're all seeing an increase in cases.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
05:50
So those populations in
Europe
that you're talking about, they were fairly vaccinated. So I guess what I'm wondering is, are we also seeing hospitalizations go up? Are we seeing deaths rise?Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
06:01
Yeah that's a really good point. So these countries are not yet really seeing any significant increases in hospitalizations or deaths, except for the
UK
. The UK
is something that we should really always be keeping an eye on because a lot of what they've seen we've ended up seeing a few weeks later. So right now what's happening in the UK, is that hospital admissions are going up by 20-30% across the country.Share
06:25
And the
UK
is interesting because you know they did a really good job of vaccinating their older adults. They got a very high percentage fully vaccinated and about two thirds have had a booster. But a lot of those people have not had a booster in about five months and they are back to pre pandemic activities. So those are all quite similar to the conditions in the US
.Share
06:48
Where we've also done a pretty good job of fully vaccinating older adults. But here we have an even smaller percentage who've had a booster. And it's been a while since a lot of people have had a booster here. So If the
UK
seeing 20-30% rise in hospitalizations that is something for us to keep a very close eye on.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
07:09
So as BA2 come to
the United States.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
07:11
It has and here in
the United States
it's already about one in four cases. And in some parts of the country like New York
and New Jersey
and parts of New England
, it's an even higher percentage, about 30-40%.Share
07:26
What's not quite clear is whether these numbers will keep going up., they probably will. But we don't know how fast they'll go up and when they do whether we're really prepared to deal with that.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
07:54
We'll be right back.
Share
Break
Michael Slackman
08:33
I'm Michael Slackman, assistant managing editor at
the New York Times
, overseeing international coverage.Share
08:38
When the Russian military decided to begin its attack on
Ukraine
. We were there from the moment the invasion began. Our reporters, photographers, videographers, audio experts were there to bear witness.Share
08:51
We want to make sure that if a town hall is hit, if hospitalists is hit that the world knows and they will know because our people are they're, putting themselves in harm's way, not for glory, but for our mission. It's our job to really try to figure out what the truth is, what the facts are on the ground.
Share
09:08
In the newsrooms of
New York
, London
and so, we also have dozens and dozens of journalists working on 24 hour live coverage. The New York Times
can help you fully understand what's happening with this war now and what it might mean in the future. If you want to keep up with what's going on in Ukraine
, follow our coverage at NYTimes
. com/Ukraine
.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
09:32
So
Apoorva
, China
and Europe
are now really seeing surges of this new variant, BA2. And you told us that it's also here in the United States
, but a lot of people in the United States
don't feel like the pandemic is here anymore.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
09:49
It's true, I mean we are acting like the pandemic is over, right all over the country, all of the restrictions have just stopped.
Share
09:56
There was some good news this week, progress at home battling
Covid
. There are some hints that life might be returning to something resembling normal.Share
10:06
As our country faces a new stage of the pandemic. The CDCs revived, guidance means a breath of fresh air for Americans nationwide. The agency is no longer recommending face masks indoors or inside many schools.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
10:21
All 50 states have dropped their mask mandates.
Share
10:24
We want to give people a break from things like mask wearing when these metrics are better and then have the ability to reach for them again. Should things worsen?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
10:33
Even in schools across the country, kids are not wearing masks, teachers are not wearing masks.
Share
10:37
Restaurants and other businesses can stop asking patrons for proof of vaccination.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
10:42
And even businesses have really stopped requiring vaccinations for their customers.
Share
10:46
When the only mask in sight is a Mardi Gras costume, you know, something's changed.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
10:53
So we are in many ways acting like the pandemic is done with.
Share
10:57
Finally we've got the virus under control rather than the other way around.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
11:04
But you know, it's really not because we still have about 100 million people who are not vaccinated. We don't know how many of those people have never been exposed to the virus and so have no immunity. And even among those of us who are vaccinated and even boosted, we know now that two doses of the vaccine and even three Duwayne that the protection against infection does drop with time and leaves us vulnerable to another round of infection.
Share
11:34
Most of us will be okay even if we do get infected, but people who are older or who have weak immune systems for whatever reason will still be vulnerable to getting seriously sick and maybe getting hospitalized or dying if they get infected.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
11:49
So prove it sounds like what you're saying is that even though a lot of us got boosted last fall in winter that that immunity is starting to wane already?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
12:01
That's right. It seems like the protection that we get from the boosters wears off after about three months in terms of preventing infection and that is an important distinction because for most of us, if we do get infected, it will not cause us to become really seriously sick.
Share
12:18
I mean, I'm vaccinated and boosted and I'm just getting over about of
Covid
and I spent a few days this week in getting chills and moaning and whining in my bed. But I knew that I wasn't going to end up in the hospital. And that's the difference is that if you are vaccinated and boosted, you are most likely not going to be hospitalized.Share
12:39
You're most likely not going to die. At least if you are relatively young and relatively healthy.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
12:45
Right.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
12:46
But for somebody who is older or who has a weak immune system because of whatever health condition or because of some drugs they're taking, it can be really serious.
Share
12:57
And so that's why it's important to keep shoring up our immunity. And that's really why
Pfizer
is now asking the FDA
to authorize a fourth shot for older adults. On the other hand, Moderna
is asking the FDA
to authorize a fourth shot for all adults. So it's not clear what's going to happen.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
13:16
So does that mean that everybody should expect to have to get boosted every couple of months?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
13:20
You know, that's a really good question. And I think it's one that the Federal Health Officials really have to make a decision on, that depends on what our goal is as a nation, is it to prevent all infections in everybody or is it only to protect people from getting into the hospital or dying in which case really it's the older adults and immuno compromised people that need the extra layers of protection.
Share
13:45
You know, and there's one other thing that the government really needs to decide and that's how much money are we willing to spend to make sure that the population is protected.
Share
13:55
Right now, there's a fight going on in congress to figure out how much the
Covid
budget will be. And the Biden
administration has asked for a certain amount of money for tests and treatmentsn and prevention plansn and it's not clear that that will be approved.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
14:11
So it sounds like just as the
US
could see another rise in cases our immunity is waning. Were debating whether to do a fourth shot and we're debating whether to fund Covid
preparedness further.Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
14:26
That's right and what I'm worried about is that, while we keep debating these things, we are actually headed to a situation where there are two Americas coping with this pandemic.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
14:36
What do you mean?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
14:38
Well, you know, there's one whole group of people in this country for whom
Covid
is not a huge deal and that's because they have resources, that includes me. You know, when I got sick, I was able to take a couple of days to do nothing at all and I could work from home and I felt somewhat okay.Share
14:55
My son was sick first and you know, he stayed home and that was not a big deal. So there are this entire group of people who have enough resources. That
Covid
is not much more than an annoyance.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
15:08
Right, I think a lot of people want to be done with this pandemic and you know, want to move on from it. I want to go out into the world as if there's no
Covid.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
15:16
We all do, you know? But for many people that's just not an option. I mean, there are people who just simply don't have the resources who are too poor, who can't take time off of work, who, you know, if their kids get sick, don't have childcare options or people who have certain immune conditions who just cannot move on and act as if the pandemic is over because they are still very much at risk from the virus.
Share
15:42
I get a lot of heartbreaking emails from people who are transplant recipients or who are on treatment for cancer or who have other conditions that don't allow them to move on. You know, are very, very much afraid of this virus still. And these are people who go to work with you or you know, you don't even know have these conditions. There are five million of these immuno compromised people. And they feel very much like they're being left behind while the whole world is moving on.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
16:12
So it sounds like there are these two groups who really can't afford to get sick. One is people without the money to deal with it. And two immuno compromised people, right?
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
16:23
And the sad thing about this whole situation is that we've seen this play out over and over. We've seen this with diseases like
HIV
and TB
where everyone was once afraid of the disease. And then because treatments became available, only some number of people had access to them. Some number of people could afford them and then the rest of the world still had to deal with it.Share
16:49
And that's where I'm afraid,
Covid
is headed to a disease that for one group of people is not at all a big deal. And for many others to still catastrophic.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
17:06
Thank you.
Share
Apoorva Mandavilli
17:07
Thank you.
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
17:14
In
Europe,
Austria
announced it would reintroduce an indoor mask mandate as Coronavirus
cases continue to rise, bucking a trend among european countries of lifting precautions.Share
17:31
The bottom line is we likely will see an uptick in cases as we've seen in the european countries, particularly the
UK
.Share
Sabrina Tavernise
17:40
Meanwhile, in an interview on
ABC
. This week on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci
said he expected to see a similar increase in the number of infections here in the United States
.Share
Anthony Fauci
17:51
Hopefully we won't see a surge. I don't think we will. The easiest way to prevent that is to continue to get people vaccinated and for those who have been vaccinated to continue to get them boosted
Share
Sabrina Tavernise
18:04
Fauci's note of caution comes as several states continue to relax restrictions.
New Hampshire
, Massachusetts
, South Carolina
and Utah,
all planned to close mask Covid
testing sites in the coming weeks, shifting testing efforts back to hospitals and pharmacies.Share
18:47
We'll be right back.
Share
Break
Sabrina Tavernise
19:27
Here's what else you need to know today. Russian forces got closer to capturing the exhausted ports city of
Mariupol
over the weekend, Mariupol
has been under siege since March 2nd without water, gas or power. But the situation deteriorated even more in recent days, with reports of raging street battles and of Russian forces successfully conquering three neighborhoods.Share
19:51
A drama school was also bombed, about 400 people were sheltering in its basement. It is not yet clear if there were casualties. The Russian Defense Ministry has called on civilian leaders of
Mariupol
to surrender by 5 a. m. on Monday or face charges in military tribunals. Early on Monday, the Ukrainian government rejected the Russian demand.Share
20:12
And 64 workers at the
Chernobyl
nuclear plant in northern Ukraine
have finally been allowed to leave their shifts after three straight weeks of being ordered by Russian soldiers to keep working. The workers had been on duty since February 23rd the day before the Russian military seized the plant and had been forced to work around the clock to keep the plant going.Share
20:36
Earlier this month, the
International Atomic Energy Agency
had said that the workers were no longer doing repairs or maintenance, partly because of quote "physical and psychological fatigue". In a Facebook
post, the plant said a group of volunteers had been sent to the site allowing the tired workers to rotate out.Share
21:02
Today's episode was produced by Rochelle Banja, Caitlin Roberts and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by Mark George and Lisa Chow contains original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano and Corey Shuffle. It was engineered by Chris Would, our theme music is by Jim Brumberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonder Lee.
Share
21:32
That's it for
The Daily,
I'm Sabrina Tavernise
, see you tomorrow.Share
Break
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Sabrina Tavernise
Apoorva Mandavilli
Michael Slackman
Anthony Fauci