Wednesday, Feb 24, 2021 • 1h, 55min

Tiger’s Accident, Watson Trades, COVID and Common Sense, and NYC’s Future With Kevin Clark and Derek Thompson

The Bill Simmons Podcast
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The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kevin Clark to discuss Tiger Woods following the news of the golf star's car accident (2:30), before they revisit the market for Deshaun Watson and make up some fake Orlando Magic trades (20:00). Then Bill is joined by Derek Thompson of The Atlantic to discuss what experts have learned about COVID-19 since the early months of the pandemic, the various vaccines, post-pandemic life, and more (53:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Speakers
(2)
Bill Simmons
Kevin Clark
Transcript
Verified
00:00
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00:19
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Zac Efron
one, not the John Belushi dan accurate one just for the record.
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Bill Simmons
01:34
But that's up as well. Coming up, going to talk to
Kevin Clark
about
Tiger Woods
and
Deshaun Watson
trades and what the
Orlando
magic might do is the, the surprise trade partner of the trade deadline and then from the atlantic,
Derek Thompson
is going to make us smarter about
Covid
and a whole bunch of other things. That's all next first project.
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02:13
All right, the ringers,
Kevin Clark
is here, we're taping this part of the podcast is 2 30 on Tuesday pacific time. A few hours ago, news broke.
Tiger Woods
was in a car accident. Was not what we expected to talk about today.
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02:25
Um, serious car accident, The facts are still coming out, definitely had leg injuries. I guess we'll find out what else happened to him. Uh seems like he survived kevin. What what struck me as the whole thing was unfolding was how scary it is from an information standpoint, when something like this happens where any sort of kernel of a half truth or whatever.
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02:48
Like at one point,
Tiger Woods
was, you know, critical injuries, his life is in jail. And I was like, no, no, it's actually critical injuries to his legs. And why haven't we been able to fix this whole terrible way? Social media dissect these news stories where we have no information yet.
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Kevin Clark
03:03
It's a big question because it's the nature of social media and it was, you know, you saw this about an hour or two before the Sheriff's Department released a statement. You saw rumors flying. And you know, I just think that it gets to be very uncomfortable spot where just people were saying, oh, hey, you know, I heard this rumor from this guy who's and it was in this ambulance or whatever. And I just unfortunately think it is the downside of social media, um that rumors can can fly uh early.
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Bill Simmons
03:33
Yeah. The one thing was the pictures of the car.
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Kevin Clark
03:37
Yeah.
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Bill Simmons
03:37
And it was clear like something bad happened to that car where it seemed like it veered across, you know, many one lane highway and ended up flipped upside down. And that, that there was real damage stuff like that.
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03:49
So you're looking at this, you're patching it together all the information and you know, the big pieces like is he gonna make it then you realize, all right, it seems like he's gonna make it and now I guess we'll find out what happened to him. But um, yet another twist for a career that we just saw laid out and dissected in that two part HBO documentary.
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04:09
And it's, you know, the 2017 car accident he had, where it was like everybody wrote him off and then he has a dramatic comeback with the
Masters
and now he has another really, you know, best case scenario.
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04:20
This is just a huge um recovery and he's going to have to go, who knows if he's going to play golf again, That obviously doesn't even really matter right now, but just incredible twists and turns in this guy's life and he's borderline hero that he's a tragic figure and he's a comeback figure and here, here we are again, what I would say, you know, you hope as you said, the gulf part is separate and almost meaningless at this point because you know, I, I remember something scott van Pelt said on Priscilla's podcast or, or this year that
Tiger Woods
is only primary concern right now, um, with the universe is being with his kids.
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Kevin Clark
04:59
And when he won the
Masters
two years ago, it was just through the prism of, hey, my kids can see me at my peak, They've never seen this before and that once that happened, he was, you know, he felt good about his place in the universe.
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05:10
And so right now when I saw this and I saw the footage obviously like you have been watching just Cable news um all afternoon, it just came to, I just hope he can be healthy and spend time with his kids and live a happy and healthy lives because he's gone through so much.
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05:23
Um you know, I, he was a God to me growing up in
Orlando
, uh you know, probably live 20 minutes away from me and you know, I think that there's a wonder you get, I'm sure you had that growing up in boston, but when you see someone like
Tiger Woods
and I only had two or three times, I was actually close to a couple times in the magic game.
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05:39
One time I saw him at a range hitting golf balls. And it gives you a, even though I was a child, it accentuates your child like wonder of sports when you see someone like
Tiger Woods
hitting a six iron at a golf ranch.
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05:51
Um, and it shaped my love sports quite frankly to have somebody like that in the, in in in the world. Uh, that was close to me. So um, geographically. So it's, I'm just hoping as a healthy, healthy and happy life and gets back to
florida
, gets back to jupiter and and get spent time with his family.
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Bill Simmons
06:07
Yeah. For your generation, because you're younger than me, he he was basically the Jordan for your generation of kids growing up.
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Kevin Clark
06:14
Yeah. And I thought about that today because I think that I remember telling bob Costas said about DiMaggio because he missed the DiMaggio generation, right? And he would say that all of his dad's friends and his dad was whenever mickey mantle made a play or anybody, they say you never saw the real thing kid, you never saw DiMaggio.
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06:33
And I kind of feel like with my kids or anybody who's, who's, you know, being born now, uh, I'm gonna tell them like you guys, you guys think you can see a six iron be hit by some of these new guys, but you have no idea.
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06:46
You might think that Jon rahm went in the
Masters
is cool, you know, 10 years from now, but it's not nearly as cool as what
Tiger Woods
did um, in the late nineties is not nearly as cool as what Tiger did a pebble uh, those handful of times. And so that, that's us, that's my generation. Um, I was born in the late 80s and from the time I was 9, 10 years old, from the time I knew what golf was, Golf was not.
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07:08
And I looked now and I see, you know, the 93 masters or whatever, everybody's wearing those terrible visors and the crappy shirts and all that stuff. Golf was never that to me because I knew
Tiger Woods
from the time that I started watching golf. So I had a complete different experience than than everybody else.
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07:24
I, golf is probably different and differently consumed for everybody else. You know, like there's a how about something mystical about
Tiger Woods
, like robert. Redford said this a couple years ago, for a long time ago actually, where he said that, you know, you're not supposed to control golf, you're not, golf is uncontrollable.
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07:39
And
Tiger Woods
, the only person who could control it. And that to me shaped the way I view golf. Um, and everybody else, as I said is not the real thing. Um, after it. So yes, he is our Michael Jordan. He's our joe DiMaggio. He's he's whatever you want to throw out there.
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Bill Simmons
07:55
Yeah, for me it's ali I caught the tail end of it.
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07:59
That was right when I was, you know, growing up watching wide world of sports, seeing the fights and he was like the first guy who was like the super duper hero and then bird and magic and then right to Jordan and then basically as Jordan starting to wind down Tiger shows up and it seemed like he was just the next guy and I do feel like he was the next guy for he was, he exceeded expect eight in my lifetime in my lifetime.
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Kevin Clark
08:24
There are two people who had unbelievable hype and exceeded it and it's Lebron James and it's
Tiger Woods
and I don't think I don't, that is so rare that we had to add to my lifetime have to people like that and for Tiger was to do what he did and be just, I mean it was, it was almost something mystical about it.
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08:44
Um, and so I, I loved his career and, and again, I just hope that putting aside the golf thing, um, I just hope he gets to live a long and healthy life after this and happy life and that this is um, just another thing that he's going to be able to, to, to come back from, because he, he has, he has, there's been some unbelievable bumps in the road.
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Bill Simmons
09:04
Yeah, I went on fairway rolling with House and Nathan last week and we were talking about How incredible that
Masters
title was in 2019 and where you just feel like the guy's body is basically broken at that point where he said multiple back surgeries, he had all kinds of issues with his need for that to do that.
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09:24
I think I made the point as the years pass, I think that's going to become more and more incredible that he won the Masters. I think we're gonna look at that, the holy shit, how did that happen? Um if he can come back from this, there's the obvious Ben Hogan parallels and things like that.
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09:38
But at the age that he's at with the, you know, how bad the his back stuff has already been and things like God, God only knows what happened to him.
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09:47
So it's tough to talk about because we have no idea and by the time you heard this podcast, well we'll have 78 more tidbits that have come out, But um, You know, I think he was a weirdly beloved guy, you know, that that hit rock bottom in a lot of ways in '09, 2010 2000 and for a lot of people, but people also really loved him and you could feel it in that Masters thing and for his generation, he's the guy.
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Kevin Clark
10:11
Yeah, I would say I would say that 2019 masters to me, it was, it was probably a top five amazing moment for me. Golf is a cruel sport because there's no retirement, right? Like it's not like Peyton Manning, sitting up on the podium and saying, I'm done next, surgeries got me, you can you can play the same courses, he could play Augusta in theory, till he's 90 years old and you never really know when it's over.
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10:32
And so it's unannounced, it just subtle when it's over. And so when I was watching
Tiger Woods
before that, and obviously he had some triumphs in the years prior, um he wanted to East Lake and he was in contention um in, in his book at the Valspar, um but I just didn't know that was possible.
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10:49
And you know, one of the things I've always thought about somebody, AJ Liebmann said about joe louis is like when you have a guy who is getting a little bit up there in age, you root for him because you're really just rooting for yourself to age well, like you're just, you don't want your childhood to go away.
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11:02
And so I was thinking about that a lot that
Tiger Woods
, you're where it's just like, you know what a cool, I'm still young because
Tiger Woods
is keeping me young because the guy who's been there my entire life is still there and I think there's always a little bit of selfishness and projection when, when a guy like that comes back and I just thought that's, that's what I remember about that moment.
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11:18
That's why I think again, it's one of most amazing things I've ever seen from on, on a sporting sporting event.
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Bill Simmons
11:23
Yeah. For me, I don't know what my top 10 is, but I know that's in there. Nicholas in 86. I have to golf things in the top 10 and I don't know what the rankings are, but both of those have to be in there, especially with the tiger thing where after 2017 we gave up.
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11:38
That was, it was a sad ending that all of a sudden wasn't, and now it's sad again and we'll see how it plays out. Let's uh, switch topics. We'll talk about the
Shawn Watson
. Yeah.
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11:50
Which was the original reason I had you coming up. Trade rumors all over the place. Yeah. Um, First question, do you think he will be treated well?
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Kevin Clark
12:03
Uh, I think he will be eventually traded. Yes. So I think the .21, he will be traded. I think that they're they're saying no to everything right now, but
Deshaun Watson
is also not returning their calls, everybody's ghosting everybody else. The teams are ghosting. The teams are calling about trades to
Shawn Watson
is ghosting his own team.
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12:22
I think there's a real and I know the fines would be hefty. I know we have to give $21 million tired, but I think that I don't think he's gonna retire. I think that
Deshaun Watson
is would be happy to have a standoff that goes into august september and then the team eventually trades him.
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Bill Simmons
12:42
I also agree. I think you would be traded at some point when you've passed the point of no return and you have a gigantic asset, you've got to flip that. It's also a smart thing for a front office to do because you're getting all these future picks, all these future assets now, you're not gonna get fired.
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12:58
It's like why? You know, we were building, you know, we had to trade the Sean and uh, you know, and so Nica sorry, I was like, well, you know, it's it's a three year project and that sometimes the best place to be when you're in a front office.
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13:10
I'm just gonna say this, I was looking Fanduel didn't have odds for this, but I did find odds online. Um, And he's a 2-1 favorite to just come back to
Houston
. I don't think that's gonna happen. Denver was 3 to 1 by these weird Internet. I found panthers were plus 3 50 dolphins, plus 3 50 jets, plus 4 50.
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13:30
For whatever reason, the panthers Were the team that jumped out to me for two reasons.
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13:38
Uh, they, they are owned by that guy,
David Tepper
, I think is hedge fund asset, sees big picture. This thing seems expensive, but I'm not scared off by the price because I know blah blah, blah. Um, there are also more on the advanced metrics side. Yes. And if there's a team that's going to over pay for him and then make the case, here's why we overpaid because we're smarter than you.
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14:09
It seems like the
Carolina
panthers. They are, we're smarter than you team. Oh, you're making fun of us. That we put four first rounders in here. Just wait. We're smarter than you. And plus he's from the Carolinas. That's another thing. And him, that division. That makes the most sense to me. What do you think of that option?
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Kevin Clark
14:27
Yeah. Obviously played college in south Carolina is from the Atlanta area. So he knows the southeast really well. I would say it's funny to me that you brought up the panthers because the panthers have an interesting role in all of this.
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14:39
Which is the panthers were the team that got Nicasio hired because bob Lamonte, who is the agent for both
Jack Easterby
, Annika stereo called cal Mcnair, the owner of the Texans and said, Hey, Nick Osario is going to go to
Carolina
and he's going to bring
Jack Easterby
with and that was the entire thing that set this all in motion.
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14:56
It's also hilarious because it presupposes that
David Tepper
would take
Jack Easterby
and his organization. Like there's so many red flags because you imagine
David Tepper
being like, oh yeah, the guy really want is the character coach who's had a hostile takeover of the team in
Houston
and got everybody fired and and decided to trade
DeAndre Hopkins
, all this stuff.
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15:14
Okay,
David Tepper
, Let me, let me make Comic cal Mcnair is listening. Let me tell you something. They were not going to
Carolina
.
David Tepper
was not taking jacket. Yeah. Okay. So it's a, it's an intriguing team. I would say the fact they have the 8th pick is hurts them a little bit.
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15:32
If there was a predraft trade, I think the draft is a soft deadline because if they wanted to move on from the Shawn Watson, they'd want the quarterback this year. Um, again, I think it's gonna come down to whether
Shawn Watson
once you miss games.
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15:43
And that's why I think it goes into september, august september, but I think that the teams that make more sense would be
Miami
and the jets who were two and 3 respectively, but he doesn't doesn't, he's been pretty clear, he didn't want to go to the Jets, so there's been just he and he has a he has a no trade clause, which means he controls the whole process.
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16:05
Miami
makes the most sense. I would say
Miami
is problematic for the Texans because the first round pick they would get back is the Texans first round pick, which was traded for Laremy Tunsil because they were trying to protect
Shawn Watson
and failed. There's very little scenario here where the Texans don't end up wearing a clown suit.
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16:23
Like everything that they've done was so mistake riddled that they're going to have to sort of undo a mistake that they've already made. So they're kind of polygamy Tunsil as one of the highest paid tackles in football and he's not protecting any quarterback worth protecting.
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16:36
Right. And so, uh, that's a funny regular to it. I think
Miami
makes the most sense from that regard. Um, you know,
David Tepper
, the report is that he'll do anything. The quote was moved mountains to get a franchise quarterback. And there are a bunch of those guys out there who might be a little bit unhappy.
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16:53
Russell Wilson could be one of those guys, Aaron Rodgers could be one of those guys.
Shawn Watson
is one of those guys. And I think that
Shawn Watson
is obviously the closest one towards moving uh, this year, but I kind of feel like he's gonna be aggressive the trade rumors so far.
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17:06
You saw Peter King this week, he's been a lot of the trades were two first round picks and then a second to second round picks, they were staggered and staggered here. So 20 to 2021 1st round pick, 2023 1st round pick, Whatever teams are gonna get creative.
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17:19
I think one of the problems Bill, it's almost like the James Harden trade, the price tag is so huge that it's almost a failure of creativity that they don't have more trade offers, right? Like what is the price for
Deshaun Watson
? If two first round picks, get you a pretty a really good defensive player in this league. I think it starts at three first round picks plus players.
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17:37
Um, John McClane who covers the team and I think this is kind of weird to be honest with you, that they're all like Shannon Watts is not getting traded, but also here's what they'd want for
Deshaun Watson
.
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17:47
I am very specific, so John McClane had two first round picks to second round picks and I believe two defensive starters um in this hypothetical, by the way, in this hypothetical package, which doesn't exist because the Texans haven't even thought about trading him, but here's a very detailed list of what they'd want. Okay.
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18:01
Um and so I that that would seem to, and Mclean has said this point to the Jets, but again, why would you
Shawn Watson
go to a franchise? Like the Jets? He has to go someplace with the talent base because the picks are going to be there obviously.
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18:15
Um and so I think when you look at
Miami's
young core, that makes the most sense to me, especially when you look at the return, if the deal was to happen in the next month, I think, I mean if the panthers draft mac jones, like the Texans really gonna want to take that. Like, I, I don't know, I just think that the panthers have the ambition to do it. I don't know if they have the assets to do it.
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Bill Simmons
18:37
I have a lot of follow up thoughts on this, but we're gonna take a break.
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18:43
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19:05
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19:18
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19:36
All right, coming back. You mentioned something that I just really enjoy anytime a story like this happens where the Texans they maintain, look, we haven't thought about trading to
Shawn Watson
.
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19:49
It's the off season, your front office. It's not like you're playing games, your training games. All you're doing is sitting around scouting players and playing in the future of your team. So let's say, um, let's say, um, nick Corsaro and your, your chaplain Easterby And we're hanging out all the time at no point for 20 minutes.
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20:12
Do we have the hey, if we did trade decision, what do you think the package would look like we're just not touch like you bring that up to like, no, no, no, not talking about that. It's almost irresponsible for us not to talk about it.
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20:25
What else will we talk about? They'll be the number one thing I would talk to you about every day. Hey, kevin, I just realized I probably need a third round pick to, I'm gonna, here's the trade. I, I read it in my head, here's what I would want.
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Kevin Clark
20:37
They, they're not talking about it all gets fuck out of here. It's, it's ludicrous to think they don't have a plan in place or even a thought. I mean if you had assets just from a, from a trade standpoint and all that stuff, you'd always be thinking about the value of everything, right?
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20:52
And so does John Watson is an amazing player, he's an amazing person. As, as many beat writers have said, pillar of the community, all that stuff. Um there, but there's going to be at some point, there's going to be a fair value and it's, it's nick Kasa Rios job to understand what that is now for me, isn't it?
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Bill Simmons
21:09
His job isn't his job to assign two interns and be like, can you research every superstar traded in the history of the
NFL
and make a spreadsheet for me, I just want to study it for the next two days in the bathtub and Bill, this happened in european soccer with, with Neymar where it didn't seem like there was a price tag for a player like that.
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Kevin Clark
21:27
And then paris and German, german basically said, ok, we're going to invent a price tag for it. And they ended up basic, you know, giving hundreds of millions of dollars to Barcelona, you invent the trade if there doesn't exist and that's what needs to happen here.
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21:41
The contract with Watson's really interesting cause the Texans paid out $27 million dollars in signing bonus. So this year, players only on the hook for $10.5 million. Excuse me, the team is only on the hook for $10.5 million next year. 35 year after that, 37 32 2024 2025 That is ludicrous because the tv deal is going to kick in Bill.
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22:00
Wait until you see in 2025 what Trevor Lawrence gets because it's not going to be $32 million when the
NFL
gets $100 billion in tv money and essentially goes up 100% with all of their rights. I promise you whichever Lawrence is going to be making a lot more than $32 million in 2025.
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Bill Simmons
22:16
Um And so which is when he does that mean, does that mean you and Danny kelly and other ringer,
NFL
people do, we also have to factor that in? Just tell me now?
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Kevin Clark
22:25
Well, it depends on the value of the franchise tag here at the ringer. That's not that all. Yeah, it's a little bit different. Um but so yeah, I I just think that you're going to have to give up so much, but at some point it becomes worth it.
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22:40
Pff Seth Kalina who thinks one of the best writers going right now, He made the case a couple weeks ago that if you look at the numbers and you look at the supporting cast and the play calling,
Deshaun Watson
maybe had the best season of the last 15 years of any quarterback because he's the only quarterback who graded out that well with almost no help.
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22:58
You know, it's guys, it's manning on the broncos with Wes Welker and those guys and Demaryius thomas, it's brady and those guys with Belichick and josh McDaniels and the supporting cast he's had in the past, throwing to randy Moss or whatever.
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23:09
And then it's just
Shawn Watson
with an interim coach who never runs play action, who's traded and after six months after they traded one of the best receivers in football for for running back, right, There was no nothing was stacked for
Deshaun Watson
. There was no suggestion he should have success this year from a team building standpoint and he did anyway.
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23:29
And so we keep talking about whether or not Watson would make the broncos super bowl contender or the panthers super Bowl contender and I don't know if they would win the Super Bowl, but I definitely know that if you're trying even a little bit and you don't have
Jack Easterby
running things and you're not just going out of your way to make yourself a less talented team all the time.
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23:50
You're going to be relevant with
Deshaun Watson
. And I I think that that's a I think that you can pay the price for that if you're, if you're most franchises, I'm going to make a prediction Kyle to alert the video team, get the recording ready.
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Bill Simmons
24:05
I I feel another ring or social break out here.
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24:08
This is
Shawn Watson
trade is the NFL's Anthony Davis moment when the Lakers and were negotiated with new Orleans and it was like, oh, all of this stuff could be in the trade. And then when the actual trade happened, there were way more, there was way more stuff in their trade.
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24:25
It's like, oh, they got ingram and Lonzo, oh, they got all these picks and they got picked swaps. Um, and it was just this cascade of assets for a team that really, we knew he was going to the Lakers, they really didn't have the ability to even bring in another team to negotiate. It was just the software and they still got all that stuff.
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24:45
I honestly think he could go for four first rounders. I know that's Heresy. I know that's crazy. But I think we're going to have a moment with this trade where somebody is going to over pay for them because we have multiple suitors, even if it's just
Carolina
versus
Miami
,
Miami
can do the two.
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25:01
Uh, They could do the three and the 17 they could do to future seconds and throwing a defensive starter and then
Carolina
now has to top that. So maybe they trade Bridgewater and a second for late first and then they use three of their own first, whatever it's going to be. I think the price is going to be four first and F. Y. I think he's worth it.
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25:23
Especially like if you have him and you have a good team there to have the coach, we we both like the coach and they have a good team in place and those are back of the first round picks anyway. But you end up with, I don't know One of the five most important players in the league. What's the price for that? There is no price.
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Kevin Clark
25:40
If you called up the 31 other 2 31 other teams and said, I will give you do
Shawn Watson
for your quarterback. The only team that hangs up is Kansas City, right?
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Bill Simmons
25:52
I think, I think the chargers hang up.
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25:55
Oh because of the price of Herbert and how young he is in that you get as, as we've been detailing. I think this was one of your first ringer pieces. Was that rookie contract QB thing?
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Kevin Clark
26:08
I've been on the power for a while.
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Bill Simmons
26:09
Yeah, that, that's the single biggest asset you can have. And it was funny, I was talking to chris long about it last week. We're just catching up and he was saying how you know that went when they had winds on that awesome eagles team. It was the perfect storm, right? They had a really good team.
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26:23
They had the guy in the rookie QB contract, whatever. Um, I just feel like Herbert, I would rather have on that cheap contract as much as I love Watson. So if it's close, if they, if they call the charges and like straight up to sean for Herbert, I don't think the charges say yes. I really don't.
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Kevin Clark
26:41
Mhm. It's a close one for me. Um, but what I want to say broadly about this is that we're acting like the Texans or irrational franchise here and we're making all of these guesses based on this team existing in a world where that's tethered in any way to, to reality.
Share
26:57
So if you have been paying attention, uh, listener, Jack used to be taken over the organization, um, and we live in an age of hyperbole, so I don't want to overstate this.
Share
27:06
This is the weirdest thing I've ever seen in football, like I've never seen, there have been like Bruce allen types or matt millen and they get really close to the owner and they stay three years longer than they should, but at least they were football guys. This Easterby thing is so strange.
Share
27:19
Um, he seems to have unchecked power mike Florio wrote the other day now that the, the Texans president essentially quit because
Jack Easterby
was running the organization and
florida
wrote, there would be a shock if it's potential that Easterby could just become the team president or they would just hire a guy who Easterby wants to be in there who can be kind of his puppet.
Share
27:39
Um, I don't understand any of this stuff. I've watched
Jack Easterby
sermons now. That's the tape I've been watching. I want to be sensitive to everybody. Bill, they're not good sermons. They're not good sermons. Was not a good preacher.
Share
27:53
He's not a good, he's not a good pastor, whatever we want to call it. Um, I don't know, maybe because I'm from
florida
. I've just seen some really good sermons in my day. Jack used to be, he's not giving one of those. Um, I don't understand any of this. And so what, what bothers me here is if the Texans were committed to winning?
Share
28:12
First of all, it wouldn't be in this situation, but there would be a much more coherent plan. You're saying, okay, where there's gonna be four first round picks? Well, do we know that the Texans are actually have a true auction?
Share
28:21
Because one of the sort of Rosetta stone fist Bill, is that the Texans traded?
DeAndre Hopkins
last year And it was clear that they didn't call 31 teams. Okay. And when you see stefon diggs getting traded, you can see that more. Um, the Hopkins Speaker, I think 18 picks behind the digs trade.
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Bill Simmons
28:39
Uh, is that a problem? And a receiver who is about the same level goes For a 2nd, 1st round and David two rounder? Yeah.
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Kevin Clark
28:50
And then there was a quote which I think didn't get enough attention during the year, which was the cal Mcnair was like, well, we wanted to trade
DeAndre Hopkins
to a good place and I know the cardinals ownerships and they're good guys. And it's like, wait a second, what, what is that?
Share
29:04
The guide post, you're in a competitive league, You're competing, it's other teams, let's not, let's not trade, let's not do what uh, Kevin Mchale did with the
Celtics
and Kevin Garnett. Um, let's just move on from that though. Um, but no, I just think that there's, I don't think that there's a real coherent plan. I don't think there's going to be a true auction.
Share
29:26
Um, I think that, you know, I wrote this in november and Texans fans kind of rolled their eyes on me, but I said, listen, the old Bill O'brien firing could result in a power vacuum. They will have you wishing for Bill O brien. And that's exactly what happened. Like Bill O brien was awful and he was, if he was acting in, you know, basically to sabotage the franchise, he would have done anything differently.
Share
29:48
I don't think he was, but he, in a weird way, was keeping them from a much worse fate, which was becoming the
Houston
easter bees and, and now we're here and I think there's a reason to
Shawn Watson
signed that contract aside from the fact that four years, 100 and 60 when O'brien was there, which is that they have made the playoffs that year.
Share
30:07
They were up 24 to 7 on the Kansas City Chiefs last january. I mean it's unbelievable. And so I think that there's, I've never seen, I've been covering this league for seven years, eight years, something like that. And I've never seen anything like this. Um,
Deshaun Watson
his first season, he was donating game checks to the hurricane harvey victims.
Share
30:30
I mean, he got the crap, knocked him to the point, he couldn't fly with the team and had to take a bus because the offensive line was so bad. I think that was his second year. I'm like, he's done a lot of good things and been a really good soldier for the Texans and the fact that he wants out now is an indictment of every decision they've made in the last year.
Share
Bill Simmons
30:48
More realistic, Jack used to be becoming the president of the Texans or nephew Kyle becoming the president of Spotify. You had to pick ah Easterby.
Share
30:58
What did you do? You do a good job just for the record? I think you're a listener.
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Kevin Clark
31:02
I think you'd be great and you're doing great. I think you'd be great. What what what what would you do if like tomorrow?
Jack Easterby
was just working at Spotify. You just walk, you just want an email. J J Easterby at Spotify dot com. Just say this can't be good.
Share
Bill Simmons
31:17
He was a he was in a clubhouse room with daniel act and daniel acts like who is this guy? Let's put let's put him in, Can I give you the case for
Miami
over paying for
Deshaun Watson
? This is a good I have a wrinkle in here that you're gonna love.
Share
31:33
I think the two of Herbert thing is a disaster for them and it's not really a disaster yet because they can do the whole thing. Like look, you know, we're being careful is you know, it's basically we kept them in the protect we kept them in the bubble wrap. We didn't want to really let them live. But next year we're gonna let them lose.
Share
31:49
They can sell it all they want. Just wait. It's a two year entry. They have a lot of excuses but taking him over, Herbert is a disaster. This is a get out of jail free card for that disaster where you trade them now you're smart now it's like we traded two of 3 17 future. We got to sean. So it's like, hey can't kill us for taking to it. We turned him into shot.
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Kevin Clark
32:15
It's a great point. That's a great point.
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Bill Simmons
32:17
Here's the here's the opposite where that plays out. They go to war with two and next year and he leaves us cold again. And Herbert throws for what? 5200 yards next year?
Share
32:30
4900 yd next year. And it's just, it becomes like the Luca Donncha Marvin bagley thing where the Kings fans are just like, uh, I think that's, that's a real scenario.
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Kevin Clark
32:43
And I also say that the dolphins, the dolphins have talent in a lot of places. The skill guys are not the skill guys, not amazing. Um, that needs to be upgraded as does the line, but they have Xavi and Howard, They have Byron jones.
Share
Bill Simmons
32:57
They might have Vivian Howard.
Share
Kevin Clark
32:59
Oh yeah. The case was closed. The case is closed yesterday. Oh, good. Okay, Great. They got him. He's back.
Share
Bill Simmons
33:06
He's back bullet scandal. Is that the window? Nothing to see here.
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Kevin Clark
33:12
Yeah, he's back. So I think that there's the building blocks are there if they get the quarterback. Um, again, I mean, I'm not saying when we're talking about the panthers or the broncos, like none of these skilled guys blow me away.
Share
33:27
Um, jerry, judy KJ Hamon, Obviously Courtland starting on the, on the broncos, I don't know if christian Mccaffrey would be in a deal for, with, with the panthers if they made that, does that, does that 2nd that excited Christian McCaffrey?
Share
Bill Simmons
33:43
How many, how many more elite years does he have in at a position where the guys peek for like four years?
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Kevin Clark
33:50
Yes, I, I just don't, I think you want, you prioritize draft capital. You have to prioritize draft capital. Um, and also Mccaffrey's not cheap by any means. So I would not see that as an incredible hall for, for
Deshaun Watson
if they're putting a first or second round grade on christian Mccaffrey, I wouldn't care about that.
Share
34:09
Um, and so, but again, this was a team that a year ago traded
DeAndre Hopkins
for a second round pick and David Johnson, when everybody knew David Johnson. I mean, this is the problem. Bill, This is the equivalent of everybody. Like there are so few times when everybody agrees on something And everybody could see the cliff, the Texans have been driving off of for a year and a half.
Share
34:31
Even when, even when they were doing the laundry tonsil thing right before the 2019 season, everybody was saying, Hey Man, look out for that cliff, look out for that cliff, look out for that cliff. And then they just went over the cliff. They didn't listen to anything.
Share
34:42
And so for me to sit here and say, oh, they won't trade for christian mccaffrey, they won't put a first round grade like it doesn't they keep making these mistakes. This is one of the worst, I just one of the worst franchises who, who's their basketball equivalent? The kings are that I was thinking about this.
Share
34:60
I think it was when um, the magic named a minor league hockey Gm their own GM because they like them. It's actually kind of similar. Remember that John Weisbrod ownership ownership, like the miners trades in history, ownership, like the minor league hockey Gm. And they're like, I like this guy, we're gonna make a campus are far something.
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Bill Simmons
35:20
He's gonna trade T MAC for five cents on the dollar.
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Kevin Clark
35:23
It would be great steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley. And uh, it reminds me a little bit of that there's not really, I mean, I think the most franchises in all of sports have moved away from the random guy who can just take over a franchise, right? Like there really isn't like anybody like that in the
NBA
. Right.
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Bill Simmons
35:41
Um, the last one was flooded devotes. I was gonna say Vladi, I was gonna say, because you, you mentioned a key guy, the cozy up to the owner and then eventually the, basically the matt Millen, that guy's got the owners here.
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Kevin Clark
35:54
He was famous for just having long conversations with Mr Ford about the civil war. He knew how to play that.
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Bill Simmons
36:00
I heard chris chris Spielman, I think has a little bit of that. I don't think he's formally as powerful as matt millen is, but I do think he's involved with the Lions and it's a similar thing. Like he's friends with the owner.
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Kevin Clark
36:12
Isn't that true? That's, that's the way to get everything. Like there are very famous stories, basically the advice you always get when you start at any sporting organization is be friends with the owner. Like do whatever you can, don't become friends with the coach. In fact try not to become friends with the coach because they get fired. The G or the minority owners.
Share
Bill Simmons
36:33
That's another one. The minorities, they're not going to help you. The majority owner is threatened by the minority owners, don't be on their side.
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Kevin Clark
36:39
Your, it's a dead end, The big thing in sporting uh, in any sports organization. You always hear whether it's a, you know, like if you're running backs coach, do whatever you can to become friends with the son of the owner or the cousin of the owner or just the owner himself. If the owners that involved, um, just just figure it out. Figure out the pathway to friendship. That's my advice to any assistant coach in the
NFL
.
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Bill Simmons
37:02
Alright, so we think panthers or dolphins, I'm gonna throw this either before we move on to uh one last segment where we, you give us
Orlando
magic fake trades, which I know America's on pins and needles. For how many first rounders would the bears have to give up for? D
Shawn Watson
before their fans go, oh God, that's too many.
Share
37:26
Five. Trying to get the bears fans in my life. If they gave up 4 1st rounders for
Shawn Watson
, they're drinking celebration.
Share
Kevin Clark
37:35
Yeah, the 20th pick this year. That hurts them.
Share
37:40
I think five seems right. I think if you give up six, that's too many.
Share
Bill Simmons
37:44
So you think six, the bears fans are like, that's crazy.
Share
37:48
I I think that half of them say that's crazy at six and the other half talked themselves into it after a deep dish pizza and three beers.
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Kevin Clark
37:55
It's just they, they wear the scars of it, you know, I mean like the biggest, I went on a show a couple years ago and I said that Robiskie was football sam Bowie, right. And if you think about that Bears fans during, right before the double dunk game just tried to old takes exposed me on that one.
Share
38:14
Um it didn't work out for them, but the if you gave if I'm not saying Watson's Michael Jordan of the Devil's twenties, college coach has said that, I would say that obviously Patrick Mahomes a little bit more like that. I would say that in this scenario a lot.
Share
38:28
He's more lodge one and obviously, but it was actually the last one. Let's let's leave that aside for a second. If you were to ask the Blazers How much they would pay to get out of the Sam Bowie mistake four years in. I don't think there's a price high enough. I I don't and and that's seven with runners.
Share
38:46
Yeah, and and I think that that's how the Bears and any team should think about this, because when I think about teams that don't have franchise franchise quarterbacks, they everybody is on the verge of getting fired all the time. Um they're trying to find it.
Share
39:02
Uh Scouts are stressed out. The GM is depressed, the coach hates his quarterback, like everybody, it is palpable when you don't have a franchise quarterback. And when you can, when the shortcut is standing in front of you, and the short cut costs three or four first round picks.
Share
39:17
And by the way to like the rams, they haven't had a first round pick and seven years and they're fine. Um That's taking some creativity. But whatever, I I just think that you you take those swings, this is a home run league.
Share
39:29
And and if you solve the problem that everyone is trying to solve Um you're you're 80 of the way there who finished first in the that coaches QB rankings or I heard coach blankets QB blank, Was it McMahon got? I would say they're retiring the number for Peterson and once they would say, yeah, I would say they're the gold medalist.
Share
39:54
Yeah, they're definitely gold medals make they engulf are definitely in the mix there and then Maggie and Maggie and Robiskie winning the bronze. But I also kind of feel from what I understand, Maggie is just overly stressed and I just kind of feel like he, I don't know the the book I've always heard.
Share
40:15
Inegi is that he he sweats a little stuff and he's really concerned. Obviously we saw the symptom of that was with when he tried out 500 kickers after they missed the double drink and he just spent six months trying to figure out the kicking game. And it's like dude, you're gonna be fine.
Share
40:28
Um and so I kind of think that there's there's just a real anxiety in Chicago and and the fact that there's that they never know if they're coming back until december of every year and they have to, you know, it's almost like a college, remember reminds me of University of Virginia a couple years ago, um when they had all grow and Al Gore would just save his job every november, whoever.
Share
40:46
Grove Ember, and he just went, he would just beat
Georgia
tech, he would just beat
Georgia
tech and they'd be like al grow, we're just gonna, he's back baby.
Share
40:54
And that's the dangerous trap that the the bears are falling into, which is that they're going to, they might start four and four every year and then paste and that you need to pull out two wins over the Vikings or whatever. Um, so it's not a good place to have a franchise.
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Bill Simmons
41:09
Bears fans send your thoughts to kevin's twitter because he checks his twitter plus I do not, but I would say five is the number may be over.
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Kevin Clark
41:15
How do you know, I checked my twitter generation, your generation.
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Bill Simmons
41:20
Um, before we go the Orlando Magic 13 and 18 they are uh, they're just, they're just a half game out of being third worse than the east. There are also two games away from being an eight seed. Uh, they've had the year from how they've had some hilarious starting lineups and unfortunately for them or fortunately probably my favorite trade machine team this year.
Share
41:48
Lot of trade machine possibilities. Evan Fournier is an experiment. Courtney, Aaron Gordon has a change of scenery guy and then the big prize Nikola Vucevic, who I feel like, uh, I represent all
Celtics
fans here.
Share
42:05
If the
Celtics
made a pretty big play for Vucevic's using their trade exception, only giving
Orlando
back a couple of short contracts, saving them a bunch of money and in some future first, maybe a pick swap. That could be a deal that works for everybody. Here's the problem. Could you argue view ceviche is a keeper.
Share
Kevin Clark
42:24
Vucevic's Vujovic screwing that up. Vucevic.
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Bill Simmons
42:27
Vucevic,
Orlando
, He's 30 years old. He's averaging a 24 and 12 this year. And if the
Celtics
can get Kemba walker going again, which, uh, I'm not too optimistic on, but you have spread the floor offense on the Celts with, you know, voodoo who also has the ability to post up and they'd be really good.
Share
42:51
Is ken
Orlando
a can they trade him and it be, if they did trade and what would you want back?
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Kevin Clark
42:56
So everybody is on a pretty manageable contract in
Orlando
um, obviously false and Isaac around for the year. So let's table that they're also part of the future. I would say, oh kiki is, is also, I, I love him along with with co Anthony. Okay, those are my, that's my chair for going forward.
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Bill Simmons
43:12
That's my two of those guys are talking, but that you're here.
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Kevin Clark
43:16
So I've developed a respect for us this year that I didn't always have. Um, and I, I think my frustration was, he played a style that was very specific to play through him. He doesn't work with every line up and all that stuff. And this year I've seen obviously the scoring touch and I've seen the toughness he's always had, but I've come to appreciate it because of how bare bones the rest of the roster has been.
Share
43:39
Um, my joke about Bush and it's not really a joke as I view him like the band Mumford and Sons, which is if you said to me, do I like Mumford and Sons, I'd be like, no, I don't. But then whenever Mumford and Sons comes on, I just, I listen to every song and then one of the top 100 on Spotify comes like five Mumford and Sons song.
Share
43:56
And at the end of the year I say damn, I kind of like Mumford and Sons. And with Gooch, I'm just like, man, I'm really glad he had 19 points and 11 rebounds tonight because otherwise he would have scored 40 points.
Share
44:09
Like there's just something there where I don't realize it until I see the big picture how much I enjoyed him being around and how much uh, he has been the only source of offense in, in a lot of these teams. And you know, we got him in the Dwight Howard trade and I don't, I think that he's represented some lean years there. Um, and you know, he played with Alfred Peyton a bunch.
Share
44:34
He, he just nothing ever made sense in that team has never had shooters around Him. Ever, never had shooters around him ever. And his ability. So the answer is I would try to keep them honestly, I would trade 40 a probably trade Aaron Gordon? Probably trade. I really want to go down this road. I'd probably try to get whatever I could from Obama. Um, I love Obama.
Share
Bill Simmons
44:57
I finally gave up to him. You said no further comments at this time. I've given up on Obama.
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Kevin Clark
45:03
Yeah, yeah. I think I've given up on Obama and I had a discussion with our friend Kevin O'Connor in which I conveyed this to him and he said, well, he said, Bomba needs to, when are we going to see Bomba on a team that truly accentuates his strength, which is just a bunch of guys who spread the floor and shoot right? And my argument to that.
Share
45:29
And again, I, I think Bomba can be a very good
NBA
player down the road, just not with the magic in there right now. My argument is if you need the perfect team to look confident on
NBA
floor, I don't think you're very good at basket, right? Like I'm sorry. Like if you're, if you said to me like this quarterback looks bad, like if you told me that I'm not, I'm not making the comparison.
Share
45:56
But if you're like, hey, yeah. Oh yeah, Jared cinema, like Nathan Peter, One of these guys who's the bottom rung
NFL
starter. If you would, if you said to me, well, if he was running these three offenses, he looked, he looked decent. You wouldn't notice that he was bad. Well that's not really how the world works. And so I'd like a guy who can at least look competent in other offenses.
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Bill Simmons
46:15
If he was in the 1999 Rams, you think he was good.
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Kevin Clark
46:20
Great. If, if we need, if we need to build the entire plane, so to speak out of Obama's offensive game and just try to figure out everything. I just don't, I don't think that any franchises a going to do that and be, I just don't think that reflects well on your ability to play competent basketball.
Share
Bill Simmons
46:38
So you keep food in your shopping. Gordon? Gordon? How many hairdos are we up to with him now?
Share
46:45
Yeah.
Share
46:46
How many how many looks for looks for him?
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Kevin Clark
46:50
I mean he's in he's in
Orlando
. What else is? You know, we were in a we're in a bubble, we're in a pandemic. There's just not a lot to do.
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Bill Simmons
46:58
You can show for changing my hair a little bit so I'm gonna call you and I'm gonna offer you time, Lord robert Williams, I'm gonna offer you erin nice smith. Our 13th pick. Just don't watch any of his game tapes to share. They don't reflect how good he is.
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Kevin Clark
47:12
Is this like a tough situation?
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Bill Simmons
47:14
Romeo Romeo Langford who start dumping him dumping him but was the number two prospect in high school two years ago, I'm gonna give you two first round picks including this year, which should be a good pick since I'm not a top three, it might be, you know, in the 13 to 17 range, I'll give you another first two years from now and I'll give you a pick swap in like 2024.
Share
47:37
You're hanging up on me, I'm just giving you a boatload of young talent and some pics, are you?
Share
Kevin Clark
47:43
So you're talking about for vooch? Yeah, 3 1st Round Picks.
Share
Bill Simmons
47:48
I'll give you 1 1st round pick and two swaps, but I'm gonna be this year's first round pick.
Share
47:59
You get time Lord and you get Aaron Naismith and Romeo Langford.
Share
Kevin Clark
48:04
I have to think about this a little more. I'd probably, I'd probably say yes to that.
Share
Bill Simmons
48:09
Oh, you're gonna save $17 million dollars because you're running the magic, that's the bottom line is great.
Share
Kevin Clark
48:15
I'd probably say yes to that only because I'm I've seen this core and I know what it looks like and I just need to shake it up. I want to roll with the guys that I talked about earlier, those four guys and build for the future and I think that getting a nice package like that for a guy like butch, I think is a good starting point.
Share
48:35
So yes, I think that the Isaac Isaac and folds injuries just screw the timeline up so much that I'm okay keeping two eyes in the future instead of one.
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Bill Simmons
48:43
I was excited that you were playing a guy this year named Jordan Bone, which was the best poor name. I think of the 2020 21 season Jordan bone.
Share
48:53
He's just open it only fans of cap.
Share
Kevin Clark
48:57
Uh, yeah. Um, it was, I like the back to back where we didn't have any point guards. I thought that was good.
Share
Bill Simmons
49:04
That was what was the game when you had to play Terrence Ross as your point guard for the last three quarters of the game? That was amazing.
Share
Kevin Clark
49:10
That was, that was golden state.
Share
Bill Simmons
49:12
I really enjoyed that. That was fun. It went, we uh, we played actually, it was a tough hit for the point guard position because he actually looked fairly confident. He looked later. We are we overrating point guards.
Share
Kevin Clark
49:23
I thought about that because I, I was look at them like I'm not really noticed it different. Maybe it's because I've watched so much bad point guard play before co Anthony got here. But I just, I really, I was like, this, this looks fine.
Share
49:34
Like I remember, you know, Turkle who handled the ball for us, a bunch on those 09 team. Um, and before that, so I'm kind of used to, to weird innovative play. So yeah, maybe maybe bringing the ball up the court is kind of an easy job.
Share
Bill Simmons
49:48
Mediocre point guards are like mediocre studio host of sports shows. Like you're almost better off not having a host unless it's going to be a good host or a good point guard. Alright Kevin Clarke. Um, we didn't get to mm Mayor boxing maybe next time, but it was good to see you and uh, and I'm sure you'll be back before the draft.
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Kevin Clark
50:07
I love it. Ring the
NFL
show with Sheil Kapadia is up today. I do want to give a quick shout out. There's a Torres paler scholarship fund. I tweeted it out earlier today. It's a joint venture with Yahoo and the Wall Street Journal. Um, and it goes to Howard University. So uh, click on it donate. We love you to rest.
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Bill Simmons
50:25
Awesome.
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50:27
Thanks Kevin carter.
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50:31
Today's episode is brought to you by Miller lite. Weather is getting warmer. You know what that means, rooftops, backyards, patios, decks, some drinks could be a summer as Salter's I PS whatever shows up to liquor stores.
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50:45
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50:55
It's the beer for people who like beer, you can depend on that, go to the party, don't know a lot of people you're skinning and then you see that one familiar face, you're like, oh, That person, I'm gonna go over there, that's gonna be a good 45 minutes. More importantly, I want to have to make small talk with everybody else. That's what the miller lite is. It's a relief. It's a sense of relief.
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51:15
You're checking your options there, it is, your old buddy Next time you're getting beers with friends, Making Miller time, luckily you can pick up similar like pretty much anywhere this Alberta or go to Miller light dot com forward slash Bs to find delivery options near you.
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51:28
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51:44
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52:18
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52:31
Alright. That meeting to have this guy for a while, he's one of my favorite writers who writes for the atlantic. His name is
Derek Thompson
. He's been doing a lot of smart stuff recently that um that I care about, that you out there should probably care about.
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52:44
Let's start, let's start here. You've been zagging against the so called it the zag. You've been zagging against some of the conventional
covid
wisdom for a while and you've been covering it writing about it in the moment.
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52:58
It's really interesting to go back and read your archives. A lot of it has been borne out. The last piece you wrote was about why are
covid
cases dropping and that it's not just as simple as the vaccines. So you laid out four reasons. Let's talk about that. Do you feel like this is a sustained drop and why?
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Speaker 4
53:18
Yeah, I think it's definitely the same drop. I was really pessimistic about a lot of aspects of the pandemic in 2020 and I've really never felt more optimistic about the near future of the pandemic than I do right now. And it's because of the numbers that we're seeing.
Share
53:34
Uh we're looking at cases plummet, we're looking at hospitalizations, plummeting daily deaths, which took a while to really come down, have now come down 30% in the last week alone. I mean, it's not going to be at that rate forever. Like at that rate, we would have zero
covid
deaths and four weeks that's not gonna happen.
Share
53:51
But the trajectories are just incredible. And the mystery, the weird thing is that it's not just happening in new york or Oregon in texas, it's happening in the UK, it's happening in Canada, it's happening in spain in Germany, it's happening all over the world at the same time.
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54:09
And so this piece was really about trying to dig out, okay, what explains this mystery? I mean, all the smart, brilliant forecasters when they were coming out with their models in january were saying this thing is going to peak maybe in March and then things are going to come down slowly.
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54:24
They were all wrong. Like all the genius quants were wrong and the end of this
covid
spike came way before they predicted. And that is a really fascinating and just important point to just put your finger on this is happening is fantastic news.
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Bill Simmons
54:39
So you have the vaccines, the shots work.
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Speaker 4
54:42
That's it. We'll start there.
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Bill Simmons
54:44
The vaccine is really good. You know, I know there's some
anti vaccine
people out there, but the all the data is that the shot really works. It actually works. I would say in the highest end of how these vaccine shots are supposed to work right.
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Speaker 4
54:57
I think we're probably the downplaying just how great these vaccines are. Like the numbers that are most reported in the media. The numbers that are most reported in headlines are the efficacy numbers for symptomatic infection.
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55:10
So when you see like Pfizer 94% Madonna 95% johnson johnson 66%. That's efficacy against symptomatic infection. But disease isn't just infection. It's about whether you get the disease, whether you can transmit the disease and whether it can kill you, right?
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55:29
I mean, people get common colds all the time. No one cares about that infection. And what makes these vaccines so special in a way that I think is really downplayed in the press too often Is that they are 100 successful in the trials at blocking hospitalizations and deaths.
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55:48
Not 66, not 95 100 out of 75,000 people that went through these trials for Pfizer and Moderna and Astrazeneca johnson johnson Novavax, No 10 out of 75,000 were hospitalized after four weeks and none of them died in that arm of the trial.
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56:07
I mean, these shots are miracles. And so when we're deciding between shots in a way, don't want people looking at these headline figures 95 versus 66. Look at the number 100, that's how effective these are at blocking hospitalization and death.
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Bill Simmons
56:22
Do you think? I mean, you theorize this, but it's pretty obvious to me. They've done a terrible job at publicizing this. And I think part of it has to do with the general public suspicion of all information now, right? They don't know what's true not to. They don't they don't know how to disseminate truths, half truths, whatever.
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56:39
But it almost seems to me like they should be running ads that just lay out the numbers and like look, these numbers are unassailable. These vaccines work. Here's why almost like P. S. A. Ads, like if you go back in the eighties, right when they were really trying to do the war on drugs, they were running all those P. S. A. S. Especially in the 80 45 86 range on cocaine is bad.
Share
57:03
They would have these minute long ads during like the Cosby show about here's why cocaine is bad. Here's why you have to stop here all the numbers and sometimes you'll see it. If you watch old clips of
NBA
games, Cosby show whatever from the mid eighties, you'll just see these long P. S. A. Is should they be running P. S. A. Is to try to educate people on this stuff?
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Speaker 4
57:26
I think that national messaging, both federal government messaging and media messaging on the vaccines is so bad right now. Just about anything you did would be an improvement. I am for advertisements. I'm for posters. Uh, I'm for P. S. A. Campaigns. Do it all.
Share
57:43
But I think there's like a really fundamental like philosophical mistake that people are making Throughout 2020 for really good reasons. We were emphasizing risk constantly. We were telling people put on a mask or you could get someone sick or get sick yourself. It's an airborne virus.
Share
58:01
You were saying, don't spend time in crowds inside again for good reason, don't do this, don't do that. And this was during a time when we didn't have a handle on the on the virus and we didn't have a vaccine that was authorized. But now we're in the presence of a bunch of miracle drugs.
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58:20
And the goal is to get shots into arms as fast as possible and it's not appropriate to hold on to that mode of risk, emphasis in the face of a get the shots into arms as fast as possible. Campaign. What you wanted to do is be honest with people but also uh optimistic and truthful about what these vaccines do.
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58:44
Zero hospitalization, 0 death. These are extraordinary drugs. And if you take them you can get back to living your normal life as fast as possible. This part of frankly the messaging aspect is really driven me crazy. You're seeing not only news outlets like NBC emphasizing you know, some 82 year old woman who got a shot and three days later died of a heart problem.
Share
59:11
There was unrelated to the vaccine. You're seeing those sort of annoying independent cases being reported as if the representative. But you're also I think seeing people like even Dr Fauci emphasis that we might be wearing masks into 2022 and beyond.
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59:27
I think we need to tell people in really clear, crystal clear language. If you get vaccinated and your friends get vaccinated, you can do it all together. You can hug and you can kiss and you can go to a bar and go to a restaurant.
Share
59:42
If that thing is open, you can get back to the normal life that you love, that this pandemic ruined with those vaccinated friends and instead we are emphasizing all of the ticky tacky risks in a way that is I think recruiting the cost benefit analysis of the many americans that are on the sidelines because it's not 100% of americans that want to take this drug.
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01:00:05
30% of americans are saying 40% in some groups like republicans, black americans on college educated are saying I don't want to take this drug or I'm going to wait and see because I don't want to put some newfangled chemical in my body or I distrust away among black and hispanic communities.
Share
01:00:23
I just trust the way that the medical community has and continues to use us as guinea pigs. Um, We need to find an optimistic way to get people to see the benefits of these drugs and I don't think we're doing a good enough job with it.
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Bill Simmons
01:00:40
So you you listed that as the main reason cova cases are dropping.
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01:00:44
But there's three other reasons you had, you had behavior. People are just getting better at the mass and the social distancing. We were all practicing this for about a year. And I look, I don't know what it's like all over the country. I just know what it's like in
California
. It does seem like it's gotten better over the last year.
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01:00:59
You mentioned this seasonality which um people think once it starts to get warmer it's gonna get better for this. Which who knows if that's you know how true that is. But it definitely seems like it's at least a little true. But then the other one you said, which I thought was really interesting was about partial immunity and how the virus needs bodies.
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01:01:19
You know, it's almost like a science fiction horror movie where it needs these proxies to keep going and the more people that get the vaccines and practice behavior and there's just less bodies that's bad for the virus. So can you explain that piece of it? Like how when it runs out of receivers it actually can die off?
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Speaker 4
01:01:38
Yeah, absolutely. So as you said, this virus does not live in or replicate in the air or on amazon packages or in couches, it needs our bodies to grow and it might be running out of bodies. And there's two reasons for that.
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01:01:54
One reason is partial immunity, not herd immunity, But partial immunity. About 15-30 of Americans, it seems have probably contracted stars Kobe to the virus that causes
COVID-19
. Um, and that 15-30 isn't spread evenly across the country.
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01:02:14
It's probably really concentrated in groups that were most more likely to get sick in the first place, whether it's frontline workers, people live in multigenerational houses were just like, you know, teenagers who wanted to go party in
Florida
in you know, last July and we're like, I don't really care about this disease, it's not going to hurt me.
Share
01:02:30
But for a variety of reasons in those really high risk groups, you have a lot of immunity built up and there's a lot of evidence that people who get this disease do in fact developed pretty long lasting immunity to it.
Share
01:02:43
So you have that that body that base of partial immunity in the country. And now we're adding the vaccines on top of it, millions of vaccines a week vaccinated or at least put one shot into about 11, 12 13 of the population.
Share
01:02:58
So it's possible that between partial immunity, right, people have got sick and still have immunological memory and the vaccines were looking at a country where like 40 45 of Americans have something in their body that's ready to fight this thing and that I think really goes quite far into explaining why the cases didn't just start to plummet in mid january but just kept coming down.
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01:03:24
It's because the virus and even maybe the variants to are just running out of bodies their pathway forward as being narrowed.
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Bill Simmons
01:03:32
So I was talking to a friend of mine who was in
Miami
last week who is known to go out and have some fun and he is like because we were talking, we were joking about how this summer if everything kind of becomes more normal, this could be like this crazy summer where everybody would just be this pent up frustration of not being able to be a normal person, everybody will be going out and he was like, dude that's already happening in
Miami
, like
Miami
is now insane.
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01:03:59
Miami
is like it was 10 years ago and people are just out doing their thing and it made me think like in
florida
because they, you know they thumb their nose at, at um this virus really from the gecko with some with some kind of temporary exceptions. So how do you explain that?
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01:04:18
How do you explain a state that hasn't really listened to? A lot of the stuff that doesn't wear a mask that much and is basically living the kind of life, at least in bigger cities that we dream of having again. And they're not having like rampant outbreaks.
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Speaker 4
01:04:34
This is such a good question, is something that I noodle over and I honestly don't know that I have a perfect answer. But let me tell you sort of how I'm thinking about it. So Number one is that we know that Corona viruses are seasonal and that for reasons that we don't entirely understand, they tend to decline over the summer.
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01:04:57
Go crazy during the winter, kind of like influenza, just like the flu and then starting around january, february march, they come down again. So what you seasonality though? Some people say, all right, it has to do with temperature.
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01:05:10
So we think maybe this disease doesn't thrive as well in humid environments, in sunny environments, in outdoor environments, that has to do with that. So, it's possible if that's if that's seasonality describes the course of this virus that places like
florida
just might be naturally worse for the virus to replicate it because it's more human because it's more sunny because it's warmer.
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01:05:37
Arizona
would be looking at right,
Arizona
would be like that to um Here's the problem though, because, you know, you can roll that seasonality thesis out a bit and it sounds like all right, well, you've really got something here.
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01:05:50
But then you say, well, why did
Arizona
and new Mexico have their spikes? Why is brazil having such a hard time with this virus? What about South africa? It's gorgeous. Down there is people are outside all the time on Table mountain and at the beaches. Maybe just like
florida
Miami
in terms of its weather.
Share
01:06:08
And that's where the big question Mark is. You know, we've been studying this virus now for over a year. We understand a lot about it. We understand that it spreads through the air and not as well on surfaces. We understand that it doesn't do well when it's hot and humid and it does better in indoor environments, especially ones that are dry and cool.
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01:06:29
But that equation hasn't been filled out yet. We haven't reached 100% understanding here. So my
Miami
hypothesis, I think gets me to like 55 65% of the way there for why is
Miami
having such an easier time with this and say new york city? But I'm not 100.
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Bill Simmons
01:06:46
Look, I have no evidence for what I'm about to say, but I almost wonder like being exposed to it in little short first moments, the more you're exposed to and if it doesn't catch on, but your body is kind of you don't even know your body is fighting it, but it's just kind of fighting it off, but you don't have enough exposure to actually get it.
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01:07:04
Just kind of being around it. Maybe that's the only thing I could think of. You're kind of near it, but it's not like in you, but you're around it and maybe your body naturally starts kind of fighting it.
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Speaker 4
01:07:18
Yeah, I think it's a really interesting theory. I've talked to epidemiologist about that theory. I haven't quite gotten a green light on it, But let me tell you why it might not be so crazy. So the first vaccine in human history was the smallpox vaccine.
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01:07:37
And that was a vaccine that was created from cowpox vaca cow gave us the word vaccine. Um and before they had a cowpox vaccine, the way they treated smallpox in europe and
the Middle East
, really around the world was through something called variolation, which is actually kind of gross in practice.
Share
01:07:59
You know, people would get smallpox, they developed those pox, those marks on their skin and then if you should have scraped a little bit of that pox, injected somebody else with it, gave them that tiny little bit of that deadly smallpox virus.
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01:08:12
It would inoculate them against smallpox for most of their life. Now, sometimes things got out of hand and they got really sick and tired of epidemics. But for the most part, or at least in large degree variolation worked in many populations.
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01:08:26
And there is a kind of outside the box theory, definitely not fully accepted by epidemiologists, but certainly possible that various americans maybe by wearing masks and having getting only that little whiff of the virus or through other means Might be achieving the same results with
COVID-19
that people in the 15th century in
the Middle East
in England were experiencing the formulation that just getting that tiny taste of the virus taught the body how to defeat the whole thing.
Share
01:09:02
I don't want to represent this as like that is what's happening. That's the theory. Um, but I do think it has the a bedrock of plausibility underneath it.
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Bill Simmons
01:09:12
Well, that's why this is the most fascinating time for science. I don't know, at least in the last 15, 20 years, like probably since they were trying to figure out maybe more than probably since they were trying to figure out HIV and and basically had to stop that, what, how to stop it from spreading all that stuff. Um, you had a couple of, you've been on a couple of corners earlier on this
Covid
stuff than anybody else.