Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022 • 28min
Scanning the Futurescape
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Today we’re taking a trip to a place we’re calling the ‘Futurescape': a place built on decentralized connections and thriving micro-communities, where culture is no longer bound by geographic regions and sustainable behaviors are simply an intuitive, convenient way of life. It’s also the subject of a new frog report examining evolving consumer behaviors and future business opportunities. To guide us across the Futurescape and to unpack the many forces at work shaping it today, we’re joined by Liron Reznik, Executive Strategy Director, Head of Brand Strategy and Consumer Strategy, in New York. Liron worked with a team of frogs to take a look at what’s ahead for people, business and the planet, and along the way uncovered six major pillars and 12 macro-trends that are changing the landscape of tomorrow.
Brought to you by frog, a global creative consultancy. frog is part of Capgemini Invent. (https://www.frog.co)
Find episode transcripts and relevant info (https://fro.gd/3LO6TAQ)
Download the new frog Futurescape report: (https://fro.gd/3Rhr77a)
Research: Camilla Brown, Senior Copyeditor, frog
Audio Production: Richard Canham, Lizard Media (https://www.lizardmedia.co.uk/)
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Liron Reznik
Elizabeth Wood
Transcript
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Elizabeth Wood
00:09
Welcome to the Design Mind podcast. Each episode we go behind the scenes to meet the people designing what's next in the world of products, services and experiences both here at
frog
and far, far outside the pond. I'm Elizabeth would today on our show, we're taking a trip to a place we're calling the Futurescape.Share
00:29
The Futurescape is a place built on decentralized connections and thriving micro-communities. It's a place where culture is no longer bound by geographic regions and sustainable behaviors are simply an intuitive, convenient way of life. It's also the subject of a new
frog
report.Share
00:45
To guide us across the Futurescape and to unpack the many forces at work shaping it today, we're joined by Liron Reznik, Executive Strategy Director, Head of Brand Strategy and Consumer Strategy in
frog,
New York
. Liron worked with a team of frog
to take a look at what's ahead for people, business and the planet, and along the way uncovered six major pillars and 12 macro trends that are changing the landscape of tomorrow. Here's Liron now.Share
Liron Reznik
01:11
I think each generation probably believes they live in the most interesting times or the things that are happening to them are the most important or kind of fundamental. I do think if nothing else we're living in a bit of a changed tsunami. You know, there's so much changing so fast. You know, obviously the
pandemic
is an accelerator, but you know, even other social and economical political waves that we're seeing, it just makes our time really interesting.Share
01:34
My name is Liron Reznik. I am an Executive Strategy Director, Head of Consumer Strategy and Head Of Brand strategy at
frog
based in New York City.
Share
01:44
In my role, I focus on bringing together the combined power of strategy and creativity to fuel progressive outcomes that drive growth. I'm very eager to create the new, I like to live in future tense and help our clients do the same and
Steve Jobs
word, "help our clients see around the corner".Share
Elizabeth Wood
02:04
Trying to see around these proverbial corners often of structures that might not even exist yet can be overwhelming. But Liron and team have a good head start informed by the work they do with clients every day.
Share
Liron Reznik
02:16
Change will happen, things are always going to evolve. The future will come and it will bring change, but we get to choose how to respond, and I think that's what this report tries to pause it.
Share
02:27
I don't think we're trying to predict the future. That's a fool's errand I think. But we are, I think trying to look and just have some observation of what are some of the things that are potential opportunity creator. So with that optimistic lens, what could actually lead us to do things that are value add that are interesting?
Share
02:46
I think just in general of what we do every day at
frog
and the experiences we design or the problems we try and help solve our clients. I think it's kind of imperative to be a little bit optimistic, otherwise it's very difficult I think to come up with solutions that would work well.Share
03:01
And I think the Futurescape as you read it and as you go through it, hopefully gives you a little bit hope that we can change the world in big and small ways.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
03:10
As Liron says, this report is not about predicting the future, but it is shining a spotlight on the movements that are most positioned to have an impact.
Share
Liron Reznik
03:19
The Futurescape focuses on the high momentum shifts that we are seeing that are shaping the world around us. In the report, we review the macro forces that are shaping the context in which our clients businesses operate in, the world in us as consumers are living in the starting point of opportunity spaces for businesses across categories.
Share
03:40
In other words, I guess it's for leaders that are looking at adapting their business practices overall. Some of these new market landscapes or new market conditions that are emerging, and when you think of established companies out there, it's a great way for them to become aware of the things that matter most as they look to stay ahead of the curve in their particular industries.
Share
03:60
And maybe it's just for anyone that's really curious: curious about where things are going, what kind of winds of change are out there, where they're going to take us as people, as consumers, as part of companies. What are these new forces that in a way are shaping us all and are sort of realities today and tomorrow?
Share
Elizabeth Wood
04:19
Of course answering these questions and indeed knowing which questions are most important to ask required research.
Share
Liron Reznik
04:27
So the Futurescape report is very much sort of fueled by a research scan that we did as a team here. We assembled a team of transporters, researchers, strategists, innovators. We did a couple of things to kind of get us going.
Share
04:41
One is we built on research that we do every day across sectors in our team. So this sort of idea of looking at macro forces, doing trend analysis of having primary consumer interactions. Those are things that are happening here obviously every day at
frog
. So we weren't starting from scratch.Share
04:59
We also scanned where the money is going. Where are the investments? What do they represent? That was another piece of this. We were looking at some of the areas that we felt have sort of commercial buzz around them. And obviously since this report is very much focused on consumer macro trends, we kind of connected the dots between some of that activity and what does it mean? What spurred it from a consumer perspective?
Share
05:24
The macro trends we're discussing. I think they're all supported with data. When we do our research, we look pretty wide and we look at publication sites etcetera that cover culture that cover new ways of expression and not just the mainstream media kind of tightens.
Share
05:41
We try to augment that and we try to have a wide view, across category view, so that I think gives us the richness I think of understanding and that's how this tapestry that ends up being the Futurescape gets created.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
05:55
Eventually the team arrived at six pillars shaping the Futurescape in 12 macro trends that reach across all sectors, fueled by "emerging tech", "shifting consumer demands", and "disruptive new modes of working".
Share
Liron Reznik
06:09
When we were sort of starting to put this together, we kind of looked for areas that later became the pillars of the report, areas that are high in importance both in terms of the fact that they are disrupted in a significant way, so there's something to talk about.
Share
06:25
But also in terms of the fundamental impact they would have on consumers, on our culture at large on the spending habits that people will have, and obviously that becomes an opportunity from a business perspective.
Share
06:37
And in this report we identify and we define six key pillars: organization, identity, influence, connection, fulfillment, and home. And we organize the information under these six pillars and talk about what we're seeing and the new opportunities, the new movements that we're seeing within those particular pillars.
Share
07:00
Within each of these six pillars, we have also to powerful tail winds, what we call macro trends or macro forces, the type of things that really kind of are the meat and potatoes of this report.
Share
07:12
I think if you work in a B2C company or you work in a B B type kind of company or industry, you should find something interesting in these pillars, no matter what.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
07:21
The first of the six pillars identified in
frog's
feature escape report is "Organization".Share
Liron Reznik
07:27
The organization pillar, when we look at that particular pillar, we see a shift from what we label central command to decentralized everything. And that pillar is focused around looking at the structure underlying tomorrow's world and we see one there that's built with decentralization at its core.
Share
07:46
And within the organization pillar, there are two macro trends that we're covering: one we label "Hive Mind" and another we label "Fishball Brands".
Share
07:55
Hive Mind is about the fact that brands and consumers are creating a new relationship that's much more collaborative, much more around co-creation. So brands and consumers are starting to make decisions together and we kind of thought about it as the synchronized buzzing hive, but without a queen bee, where the organization or the brand used to be that queen bee.
Share
08:18
So if you think about the boom of the creator economy that we're seeing the increasingly popular digital assets and devices, and
NFTs
- we had to say in NFTs in the Futurescape report podcast, right? - consumers are much more involved in sort of shaping the future together with the brand earners, that sort of Hive Mind mentality.Share
08:39
There's some really interesting stats in the report. We talk obviously about the rise of
Web3
, the Metaverse
, DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations), that is obviously something that's highly in the news.Share
08:52
We also have some interesting statistics that are sort of eye-openers. One that comes to mind is that 88% of brands agree that collaborating with consumers drives revenue, and 81% of consumers said brands who collaborate are more authentic.
Share
09:07
So we're seeing that dynamic from both sides of the aisle. If you'll we also have another macro trend we call Fishball Brands. And that particular macro trend is about the movement towards 360 degree data-sharing for greater understanding, greater consumer empowerment, and this notion we label "radical transparency" and the fact that when we look ahead transparency really means no surprises.
Share
09:31
People want to have that sort of 24/7 access to tools that give them and provide them on demand information about the products and services that they use. They want to be able to monitor, manage, predict their experiences. So we're seeing that shift of power and control that's driven by transparency to the consumer side here, and brands becoming a little bit like ones operating in a fish bowl. We can see through them.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
09:56
Pillar two is "Identity".
Share
Liron Reznik
09:58
Our second pillar is identity. The identity pillar is focused on the shift that we're seeing from what we call a rigid frame to a multidimensional canvas. And within the identity pillar we have two macro trends: we label them malleable masculinity and extended identity.
Share
10:16
I'll start with malleable masculinity. There's this sort of critical examination in a way of masculinity that's no longer just reserved for the avant-garde kind of members of society. It's much more common today. It's having a big moment, and we're seeing it across the board.
Share
10:32
As a result, we see that the boundaries between traditional masculinity and femininity are blurring and we see genderless expressions on the rise or as
Joseph Altuzarra
, the designers will call it "gender-full" expression, that are on the rise.Share
10:49
Masculinity is no longer as constrained as prescriptive as it used to be. Traditionally. There's much more richness, there's much more depth to it today. Inclusive design that I think really resonates in the market. And inclusive design is something we in general think a lot about a
frog
, both from a gender perspective, as well as other perspectives.Share
11:09
The second macro trend within this pillar is "Extended identity". And this one is interesting. It it leads us towards what we call virtual life.
Share
11:17
So identity no longer being confined to physical appearances, or just the real world relationships we have, but very much formed within immersive digital worlds and experiences that give us as people the freedom to construct identities that are in some ways entirely separate from our real life ones.
Share
11:35
Some interesting data that the report features is that 33% of
Gen Z
believe their online identity is their most authentic self - which I thought was really, really fascinating - and 55% of Gen Z
believe that the internet is a more creative space than anything that they experience in real life.Share
11:52
So there's an open canvas and it's a wider canvas and if you're in strategy and innovation, there is a definite you want to hear, it gives you so much freedom to create the next.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
12:02
The 3rd pillar is "Influence".
Share
Liron Reznik
12:04
The influence pillar is characterized by a shift we're seeing from what we call "uniform" and "airbrush" to "unscripted" and "vulnerable". We have two macro trends in the influence pillar, we call them soft power moves and the second one is called the post-aspirational standard.
Share
12:21
When it comes to the macro trend of soft power moves, we're seeing a more interesting view of
globalization
. The term globalization
has been around for a long time. It was coined in 1983. Yet we're just, I think beginning to see what a true global melting pot is actually going to look like.Share
12:39
Over the past few years, we've seen global forces and color to really gain prominence. If we take
South Korea
as an example of a country that's punching above their weight, if you will, culturally, their government has really doubled down in this area of soft power or cultural power, that the investment over the past few years has been helping it gain prominence, a big part of the south Korean economy.Share
13:04
We also see new channels that are really changing the game in favor over more global mass culture. Obviously
TikTok
is one of those platforms, not an American-owned platform of course as well as Spotify
coming from Sweden
, both big culture makers, culture-making machines that spread the songs, the foods, the dances and some of the social movements around the world, faster than ever before.Share
13:30
Nothing is far and nothing is - quote unquote - "week". Everything is sort of fair game I think and I think there's just a much more in some way compassionate reality coming as a result of that. So that was our first micro trend influence.
Share
13:45
And the second one is the "post-aspirational standard". And today we're seeing imperfection as the new authenticity and sort of a post-aspirational consumer emerging that no longer flocks to just traditional luxury staples. They're looking for ones that reflect a more authentic reality kind of moving from a culture I think that just glorifies the sort of notion of thriving, and kind of pushing and hustling ahead into a place where it's okay not to always be okay, it's okay not to always be perfect.
Share
14:15
I think it relates to another big trend of the mainstreaming of mental health conversations and discussions.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
14:22
Pillar four: "Connection".
Share
Liron Reznik
14:25
So our four fillers connection and it's pretty much focused on the shift. We're seeing from what we call relationship, points to relationships with purpose. So going from a world of connections, displays with points and likes like a scoreboard mentality, and seeing the being replaced by hand-picked human interactions that are more meaningful for folks.
Share
14:47
And there's two particular trends within this connection pillar that we cover in the future scape report. We label them "slow ships" and "optimization of community".
Share
14:58
The first one "slow ships" is about what we're seeing as a result of digital interactions becoming truly ubiquitous and because of the fact that there's so much more, especially
post-pandemic
digital interaction in our lives, what we've seen that produces actually a consumer desire for some limitations on that, that seeing some focus on the type of physical constraints in a way of time and place, coming back and in demand from people.Share
15:27
So going from that past perspective that sort of said that the more followers connections, etcetera that you have the merrier, to a world where there's more intentional perspective about this whole thing, a desire for more reciprocity in terms of relationships, looking for something that's a little bit more fulfilling. And it's kind of interesting because it impacts the way products and services and experiences are designed.
Share
15:53
One particular example we covered in the report is a dating app called Thursday, like the day of the week, and it's an app that sort of tries to sort of combat some of the dating app fatigue and kind to create more successful connections between people, by condensing the dating experience into sort of this one-day marathon of matching of chatting of meeting and pairing it with real-life events.
Share
16:19
It's really interesting how we went through so much in the dating scene to get to this where we're just trying to, in a way emulate a day in a life real life and where we see the focus is now regarding these, what we call "slow ships", these relationships that introduce some of the limitations of real life back in.
Share
16:40
The second trend within the connection pillar is the "atomization of community". There were seeing individuals moving beyond identification with these broad communities and moving more in favor of associating themselves with smaller squads as we call it. Micro-communities.
Share
16:58
And in a way these micro-communities become really important for companies for brands to pay attention to. So moving from a past perspective where companies would do
audience targeting
or target audience development work and look at demographics as the lead way of thinking about it, to not just moving to cycle graphics, but what we call in the report, "new age psycho graphics", to create sort of a better connection with multiple communities and smaller communities that these micro-communities we discussed.Share
17:28
So looking at creating almost what we call "micro virality", trying to create, you know, take a particular company a particular brand, and have enough flexibility and complexity built into it so that micro-communities of all kinds can connect to it.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
17:43
Pillar five is called "Fulfillment".
Share
Liron Reznik
17:46
We see a shift from a focus on climbing the ladder to this focus on nurturing the soul, and anticipating how workers will be a lot more intentional in how they view work, setting boundaries, prioritizing wellness, making time to grow their side hustles - which is a big thing - and just spending time with those that matter, you know family investing in relationships. And we obviously believe there's no one size fits all guide book for life for everyone, but we do see sort of a sort of shift towards this area of nurturing yourself your soul more than just kind of that the singular focus in a way on work as a way of fulfilling.
Share
18:24
So the first trend in this pillar, "the great rebalancing", obviously will pretty much be familiar I think to all of us that have gone through the
pandemic
and seeing how there's really been a focus to set some boundaries between work and personal lives, to invest more in relationship wellness and travel, and also kind of pushing a burden on companies to meet workers where they are with these new needs and expectations with increased flexibility, better working conditions.Share
18:52
We're not talking about ping pong tables or foosball, but other things that really matter today in order to retain talent. So moving from this kind of perspective of the relentless grind and this sort of first-one-in, last-one-out mentality, to a world where people are basically saying, "Don't push my boundaries".
Share
19:10
Workers don't just want a band-aid for burnout. They're asking more from their employers in terms of wellness policies. We've seen the rise of holistic medical plans to cover mental health, more vacation days, more flexibility and location. All of that has seen sort of a true rise over time.
Share
19:28
You know, one interesting obviously example of the impact of that is the incredible rise of the corporate wellness market. It's projected to be 97 Billion by 2027. It's growing at a kegger of 6.8% annually. So we know
Headspace
, we know Calm
, you know, mindfulness
became the new power move and people's demand for it has really impacted corporation.Share
19:50
So we're seeing things that once were just in the, I would call it the personal space, entering the professional space and kind of creating this great rebalancing that we detail in the report.
Share
20:02
The second trend within this pillar is the "agency economy". And there were seeing the fact that people are spending less time on commutes on social outings, looking for greater financial flexibility at the same time from their side hustles, etcetera.
Share
20:17
We're seeing also a lot of people quit their pre-pandemic jobs. We've seen that over the last year or two, and there's in general sort of a focus on pursuing passions full-time rather than sort of climbing the corporate ladder and reclaiming agency over our lives in a way.
Share
20:33
So in this new era of work promotions are going to be assessed also in terms of time and interest, not only monetary compensation. Maybe some would say this has always been true, but I think it's just become even more true now.
Share
20:45
So kind of going from a working 9-5 as the song says, "it's all taking and no giving mentality", to working 9-5 of the passion and a vision kind of driving you, and being the force that determines what you focus on.
Share
20:59
And it's sort of interesting now that some of the most dynamic parts of the economy and culture are driven by this particular dynamic and trend of the agency economy.
Share
21:09
One that I like to think about is gaming. Gaming has become so important in terms of maybe the most important form of entertainment for young people today and gaming mechanics and behaviors sort of translating to other areas in real life as well.
Share
21:23
But we've also seen this rise of pay-to-earn gaming, which we talked about in the reports and how actually that has now become another way to fulfill a passion and to make a buck at the same time.
Share
21:34
We've also seen
TikTok
shopping as an example allowing creators to promote and sell products through partnership with Shopify
. So all of these different ways to actually take agency and follow your passion and your vision and be able to actually use that to sustain yourself in all ways. So that's the agency economy.Share
Elizabeth Wood
21:55
The 6th and final pillar is "All about home".
Share
Liron Reznik
21:58
So our 6th pillar is the "home pillar". We have true trends here, "Alexa, Save The Planet" is the first one, and "ambient climate behaviors" is the second.
Share
22:08
And this pillar, the home pillar focuses on the shift from this all-or-nothing, eco-warrior stance that we used to see more to a world of casual climate routinists.
Share
22:19
The fight sort of against climate change will shifting away from something for radicals to something that's very much a routine for all of us, becoming increasingly ingrained in the fabric of daily life.
Share
22:32
So the first one here, "Alexa, Save The Planet" is about how brands are realizing that things like carbon offset payments, mission statements and PR campaigns about them taking a stand and on climate actions are great, but they are insufficient to meet the challenge ahead.
Share
22:48
And instead they're beginning to incorporate sustainability measures directly into their business strategy, their products and they provide consumers with effortless climate active features and services. I think consumers are going to look to brands to make it easy basically for them to make positive choices.
Share
23:05
So moving again from a past where in a way, brands took a billboard stance on climate, they sort of focused on messaging or focused on sustainability reports or what have you, and now very much moving the focus and maturing in a way, the focus to expand and create product and service "climate menus" as we call it.
Share
23:25
So instead of just signaling climate efforts, trying to become climate ambient sort of gently incorporating sustainability across the business, in order to meet consumer's expectations for products or services that help them feel responsible, help them feel they are playing a part in fighting climate change without changing some of their beloved routines.
Share
23:48
And we love this sort of title of "Alexa Save the Planet", it should be as easy as that as us just saying, "It will be so, let's hope so".
Share
23:56
The second trend here is "ambient climate behaviors" and this sort of moving from climate activism as counterculture as something that really isn't in the mainstream, but it is very much the purview of those that are fighting the mainstream, to it becoming today and into the future more quiet and commonplace in a way.
Share
24:17
Consumers sort of not getting a gold star for recycling or carpooling or picking trash off the beach, but just making this part of your day-to-day behavior more so. So, very much connected also to the prior trend.
Share
24:30
Some interesting details in the report, in relation to this one, the resale market growth, you know, you can think of a brand in fashion for instance, like
Depop
and how they have become a juggernaut, especially with the younger generations. 60% of millennials, we report in the Futurescape, buy from companies that are conscious of protecting the environment and favorite items, with eco-friendly packaging.Share
24:52
Maybe not a surprising stat, but what is, I think interesting for us to think about is how, as companies, as businesses that create new things - however, its products, services, experiences, business models - how we able to make sure that the climate fight is just a core part of it without just having it as a badge. How does it, in a way become ambient?
Share
25:16
And that's something I think that more and more companies are doing and more and more consumers are expecting. And if we're optimistic, I think we can say that business can really have a positive role in terms of just the future we have and how we are actually able to sustain the things we love and the routines we have today into the future.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
25:36
There's a lot more to dig into in the Futurescape report, including analogs from businesses that are already leading the way and the design provocations these movements are inspiring.
Share
Liron Reznik
25:46
The team that worked on this report, they were amazing, they uncovered, they developed, they imagined they did all of the things that we do when we're at our best.
Share
25:57
And I think I hope that when people engage with the report and read through it, review it, they'll see the passion that they brought in, do it a couple of I think good reasons to download the Futurescape report is:
Share
26:08
Number one, I think it helps you be aware of some of the forces that matter most and awareness is the first step towards any meaningful human action. So I think it raises awareness of, of important dynamics.
Share
26:19
I think number two it inspires, I hope, with some thought-provoking questions, examples opportunities in terms of how you might act accordingly in your business, in your industry, in your category.
Share
26:32
And number three, I think relating again to some of those examples, facts, stats that are in the report, those are great, I think, ammunition to convince your colleagues to pay attention or maybe they connect to something you've been thinking in your business about an initiative, let's say that you want to push forward.
Share
26:48
Maybe in this report you will find some some of the things that will help you from an evidence perspective, push that particular initiative forward and that would be an amazing thing I think for us if that happens. This inspires people in a variety of companies, brands businesses to sort of write the future if you will in their way as a result.
Share
27:07
Hopefully that happens, we'll see as the future unfolds.
Share
Elizabeth Wood
27:11
That's our show.
Share
27:13
The design Mind frogcast was brought to you by
frog
, a leading global creative consultancy that is part of Capgemini Invent.
Share
27:20
Check today's show notes for transcripts and more from our conversation, we really want to thank Liron Reznik, Executive strategy director, Head of Brand strategy and Consumer Strategy at
frog
New York for joining us today, and for all of the authors of the Futurescape report for sharing with us their vision of the forces at work shaping tomorrow.Share
27:39
We also want to thank you, dear listener. If you like what you heard, tell your friends, rate and review to help others find us, and be sure to follow us wherever you listen to podcasts. Find lots more to think about from our Global
frog
team at frog.co/designmind. That's frog.co. Follow frog
on Twitter at @frogdesign and at frog_design on Instagram.Share
28:02
And if you have any thoughts about the show, we'd love to hear from you. reach out at frog.com/contact. Thanks for listening. Now go make your mark.
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Elizabeth Wood
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