Thursday, Apr 8, 2021 • 35min
Bolsonaro's Battle for Power — April 8, 2021
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Brazil’s daily COVID-19 deaths passed 4,000 for first time this week, while President Jair Bolsonaro focused on firing his defense minister; reshuffling congress to ward off impeachment; and replacing the top commanders of the army, navy, and air force. Oliver Stuenkel and Sarah Maslin join Deep Dish to examine whether the pandemic could cost Bolsonaro the 2022 presidential election—or if he will find another way to hold onto power.
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Oliver Stuenkel
Sarah Maslin Nir
Brian Hanson
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Brian Hanson
00:01
This is Deep Dish on Global Affairs, going beyond the headlines on critical global issues. I'm Brian Hanson with
the Chicago Council On Global Affairs,
and today we're revisiting the evolving political situation in Brazil
and its implications for the future of democracy in South America 's most populous country.Share
00:21
At the end of last week,
Brazil
's president Jair Bolsonaro
fired his defense minister, replaced the top commanders of the Army, Navy and Air Force
and reshuffled his cabinet to ward off impeachment. Bolsonaro's
infamous skepticism of Covid
19 has wreak tremendous havoc on the country.Share
00:40
Brazil
has the second highest number of deaths in the world, cases are soaring and a record 4000 deaths occurred in 24 hours earlier this week. Throughout the country, vaccines are scarce. As the pandemic also damages the economy, Bolsonaro's
popularity declines, and he faces a presidential election in October 2022.Share
01:02
In this context, the popular former President
Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva
has returned to politics after his corruption conviction was overturned by the Supreme Court. So, what are the implications of all of this for Bolsonaro
in Brazil
? And is Brazil's
democracy in danger as Bolsonaro
seeks to keep power?Share
01:23
To help us understand these issues I'm joined by
Oliver Stuenkel
, an associate professor at the School Of International Relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation
in San Paulo,
Brazil
. Welcome, Oliver
, ir's so good to have you on Deep Dish.Share
Oliver Stuenkel
01:35
Thank you for having me.
Share
Brian Hanson
01:37
And also with us is
Sarah Maslin,
who is the Brazil
correspondent for The Economist
. Welcome Sarah
, wonderful to have you here as well.Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
01:45
Hi, it 's great to be here.
Share
Brian Hanson
01:47
So, before we jump into the most recent actions that President
Bolsonaro
has take, I want to start by unpacking some of the most important reasons for the political pressure that he's under. His popularity ratings have fallen to somewhere about a third of Brazilians who see his performance favorably.Share
02:05
There 's something like 60% viewing him unfavorably and the core support of only about 20%. I think one of the features that's usually cited is the pandemic, and
Sarah,
I was wondering if you could start off by talking about what's happening and why has it been so politically damaging to Bolsonaro
?Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
02:27
I think the thing that was so surprising to many of us last year when
Bolsonaro
, from the very beginning denied the seriousness of this virus, refused to do any kind of a national lockdown, totally messed up the strategy for getting vaccines, and yet he didn't really lose massive public support.Share
02:50
And so we were all asking, you know, ages ago, why aren't people angry? And the reason became clear, it was this very generous support package that the government passed that gave Brazilians about 65 or 70 million Brazilians 600 Reais are about $115 a month, and that was really welcome.
Share
03:17
So I think now we're kind of seeing a bit of a, you know, an effect that's coming late. It's that support package has run out and the virus situation, while it was bad last year, it's just way, way worse now. It's happening everywhere at once, it's getting to the point where hospitals are running out of oxygen, you know, whereas last year, perhaps it was concentrated in certain areas and fell most heavily on the poorest Brazilians.
Share
03:51
Now, it's really, you know, i 's affecting everybody. So that combined with the ending of this generous aid package that kind of tided people over and perhaps buffered a little bit the economic pain you're seeing, inflation coming back now, you're seeing the numbers and the news stories just horrific about the pandemic, and I think people have just sort of finally realized how bad this is.
Share
04:18
And also there's sort of a feeling that there is no future now. Where do we go from here? Before at least there was kind of, you know, it looked like things were getting better, it looked like the economy was coming back, it looked like the cases were going down. At this point, if you look at the graph, it's just going up like a kite street.
Share
Brian Hanson
04:37
Oliver,
Sarah
referenced the economy and the effects on the economy of the pandemic. How is that evolving, into what extent are people responding to it in terms of their feeling towards the President?Share
Oliver Stuenkel
04:51
Yeah, well I think the President articulated a dichotomy between sort of lockdown versus the economy. And that was, I think, initially, very successful. Because he said you have these um public health elites and these experts who are saying we should stay at home, but for them, it's really easy to do that because they have their beach homes and they have very comfortable large homes, they can actually work from home, where sort of the common man cannot do that.
Share
05:24
And it's true that compared to other developing countries, in
Latin America
the percentage of people who can work remotely is very low, it's about 25%. So that, at first, that made a lot of sense that you couldn't just utilize of the European strategy, US strategy of, you know, forcing everybody stay at home.Share
05:44
So I think that sort of resonated a lot with people who actually had no choice but to face the risk of infection on a daily basis. But now, I think this dichotomy is being questioned a lot by people because, you know, death numbers are so high that increasingly, people say: "well, you know, people must survive in order to consume and to sustain the economy". And I think he 's losing right now, the battle of narratives.
Share
06:13
And increasingly there's a consensus that you cannot have an economic recovery without broad vaccination, without getting first the virus under control. Because what he always said is: "the virus is like the rain, some people get wet. There's really not much we can, do just let's just go about our business". But now, there's a sense that the rest of the world is, you know, getting better.
Share
06:39
I mean, people get a lot of images of people in
the United States
starting to be outside, there's a sense of recovery out there. Whereas here things are getting worse and worse. And I think that that will increase as soon as the, you know, the difference between the crisis in Brazil
and the recovery out there will become more pronounced. It will be increasingly difficult for Bolsonaro
to defend his record. And I think that the economic strain on people will contribute to a further decline of his approval rating.Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
07:14
I would just add that one key thing right now is vaccines. That's a new element. And when you think about
Brazil
, Brazil
isn't an extremely poor Latin American country that has no resources to get vaccines. Actually, Brazil
has had really successful vaccination strategies in the past for all sorts of diseases.Share
07:41
Most recently, the Zika epidemic here in
Brazil
which, you know, was studied and responded to, really by the Brazilian scientific and medical community, and became a leader. Whereas now as the rest of the world is moving steadily down the age brackets and vaccinating people and getting back to normal activities, Brazil
really took a while.Share
08:08
And it 's a huge country. There are some exceptions to that. The São Paulo governor got a bunch of vaccines, the federal government has kind of slowly been um increasing its vaccination abilities. But there is a sense that if
Brazil
had gotten in front of it, it could have done much better, given that there were so many vaccine trials going on here.Share
08:33
There's so much medical research and people kind of who understand these sorts of things in the system, the health system, a universal health system that connects every tiny municipality to every state to the federal government. Really could have done vaccines quite well, and it just didn't.
Share
Brian Hanson
08:53
And another factor that
Oliver,
you've written about, that changed the dynamics of politics in Brazil
is the return of Lula
and his participation in public debates and in politics. Can you talk a little bit about what his return has meant and how it shifted things in Brazil?
Share
Oliver Stuenkel
09:12
Yeah, I think
Lula's
return, I mean, he was always around. of course, but because he had been convicted and was not, you know, he had not the political rights to stand for election. And that change, which also shows how unpredictable Brazil's
judicial system is, because in a way, the timing also has to do the struggle between the judiciary and the president.Share
09:39
The tension between Barcelona and
Supreme Court
has been fairly high over the past two years. But this changes the political landscape completely. Lula
would have been quite competitive ìin the 2018 election, but he couldn't participate. A lot of people believe he could have beaten Bolsonaro
in a runoff. Now he is immediately the sort of strongest voice of Brazil's
opposition, and that really changes a lot because there was no organized, coherent opposition over the past two years.Share
10:14
I would say they've been fragmented, disoriented. Like in the United States, I think
Brazil's
opposition has, you know, where people were unsure of how to react to Trump, in Brazil
I think there's been tremendous difficulty of finding somebody who could sort of cut through this daily spectacle of scandal and entertainment and just, you know, keeping people unsure of what his boss is gonna do next.Share
10:40
And he was capable of setting the agenda of criticizing the president. You know, saying he mishandled the pandemic, he's mishandling the economy. And suddenly, that was sort of the beauty of democracy, suddenly you had
Bolsonaro
, you know, adopting a different rhetoric.Share
10:59
He was suddenly was using a mask, he suddenly was starting to listen to some experts. I don't think he's fully become sort of a moderate now, but he was scared because there's an active opposition, you know, that's pushing him. And I think that the most likely scenario for next year's election will be a runoff between the two.
Share
11:21
And
Lula
's emergence now makes life very difficult for sort of, you know, centrists pro-business candidates who were seeking to challenge Bolsonaro
in the runoff. I think that the Worker's Party
candidate and Bolsonaro
himself are now best positioned to face each other in the runoff next year.Share
11:41
Which is surely going to be an epic, epic clash, because
Bolsonaro
was elected on an anti Workers Party
ticket. But Lula
now is aggressively seeking to move towards the center Uh in order to assuage the fears of those in the business community, which ended up voting for Bolsonaro
during the 2018 election.Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
12:03
I guess one question that I have, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this,
Oliver
, is to what extent the anti-corruption, anti-systemic, anti-democracy even, in some cases, mood has changed in Brazil
over the past two years. Because in 2018 the feeling of frustration and anger at the corruption scandals that had occurred under the PT Worker's Party government was just absolutely overwhelming.Share
12:37
And it blinded a lot of Brazilians, including, you know, uneducated Brazilians who were influenced by the charisma of
Bolsonaro
and by fake news and so on, but also educated Brazilians and that business community that you're talking about, to vote for this man who, you know, it was clear was not interested in democracy, was not interested in public policies that were going to be good for this country.Share
13:06
His reaction to the pandemic is far worse than any of us could imagine, but it's also not entirely surprising. So, I mean, now we've got
Lula
and Bolsonaro
again as frontrunners in this race, and I guess, I wonder, to what extent, you know, the people who voted for Bolsonaro
because they just couldn't bring themselves to vote for the party that had, you know, been behind a lot of these corruption scandals, are they still going to feel that way? Or Bolsonaros dealing with the country and the pandemic somehow changed that feeling?Share
Oliver Stuenkel
13:45
Yeah, I think that's gonna be the key question which will decide next year's election, because, you know, the anti-system mood was clearly stronger in 2018. You had the municipal elections last year and traditional parties triumphed, right? The
Bolsonaro
supported candidates didn't, really. So I think. But again, that's a whole different ballgame. The municipal politics are usually less ideological and more about actual foreign policy, actual public policy challenges.Share
14:13
But I think that the pandemic may end up hurting
Bolsonaro
tremendously, because this whole idea of, let's sort of, you know, let's send a big message to the political elite and vote for somebody who's clearly unprepared just as an act of protest um makes a lot of sense under "normal circumstances" where you can really try to shake things up and say, you know, anything but another establishment person.Share
14:41
But you're in a pandemic, I think it became increasingly evident that also is not interested in governing and that, you know, that
Brazil's
paying a massive price for having somebody leaving or in the presidency right now who's actually not capable of exercising leadership, of assuming responsibility, of making difficult calls, of telling the public: "look, I know this is unpopular, but this is what we have to do right now".Share
15:06
He's not interested or not able. Uh So I think that it's going to be less of an anti-establishment mood next year. The only concern I sometimes have is that you do have a significant part of the population which is isolated from sort of mainstream media talk. I have family members who will vote for
Bolsonaro
and because they are just not convinced that the pandemic is really that bad. There they think it's a conspiracy etcetera.Share
15:36
And so I think the media landscape has changed and
Bolsonaro
I think is still tremendously powerful of mobilizing people and of shielding them from sort of information that is available to all of us into the international community, but which is questioned by, I would say about a quarter or a third of the population, which I think would go with Bolsonaro
, no matter what.Share
15:60
So, I think the question is sort of, how do these people, some
ex-Bolsonaro
voters who are very concerned about the country, how will they react and how strong is the anti Workers Party
sentiment after all? You know, this has now been, this is now five years in the past. And Lula
's presidency is very well remembered.Share
16:23
I mean, he wasn't a radical right, he governed sort of as a very pragmatic central left president. So I think those are the key issues which will give us a sense of how things will turn out in addition to the speed of the economic recovery, of course.
Share
16:39
Because even though the situation is quite terrible, even a slow vaccination campaign could lead us to fairly broad vaccination by next June, June 2022, and then at least before the election produced some kind of sense of recovery, which could help the president.
Share
Break
Brian Hanson
17:33
So I think that our conversation so far has been a terrific context setting for what we've seen in the last week, where
Bolsonaro
made two moves at an elite level that were really very striking. You know, first of all, he fired the defense minister and the head of the heads of the armed forces and then shuffled his cabinet. So let 's unpack those. And, I want to understand how you see these things is happening. What's he trying to achieve and what are the likely implications?Share
18:03
And let's start with he fired the Defense Minister and then the next day the heads of the Army, Navy, Air
Force
departed. Has grabbed a lot of attention because Bolsonaro
is a guy who has expressed his admiration for the military junta and there's some concern. Is he trying to regain control of the military? Sarah
, let me start with you. How should we understand what's going on here and what he's trying to achieve?Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
18:31
Well, I guess the first thing is just to say that we don't completely understand it. The hours and days after this happened were a crazy scramble of Twitter and WhatsApp messages and emails, and I'm sure,
Oliver
, you had the same experience I did, which was just trying to talk to as many people as, you could to try to understand what this might mean. But of course none of us knows exactly what it means.Share
18:58
But I think, I mean, one thing to say is that the cabinet shuffle was expected
. Bolsonaro
has been increasingly dependent on this group of sort of centrist, clientelist politicians called the "centrão" or the big center, and I guess they're sort of more center-right than centrist.Share
19:22
And with the pandemic getting worse, they are very opportunistic and saw an opportunity. And so the change that was really expected was the booting out of the Foreign Minister who is an ideologue, who hasn't had many victories to be able to boast of. And it's a prestigious and important position. So that happened. But then the Defense Minister was completely unexpected. And I think, I mean, I'd like to hear
Oliver's
take on why that happened.Share
19:55
We don't really know, but why the other ministers then resigned, I think is a little bit easier to figure out, because the military here, from my understanding, is very hierarchical and respectful of military order. And what
Bolsonaro
did when he fired the Defense Minister is he put someone in who was a more junior general.Share
20:18
And so these other commanders really felt that what they had to do to respect the military hierarchy was to abandon their positions in a sign of respect, but of course they knew how it would be interpreted. They knew that this would be interpreted as the military sort of sending a message to
Bolsonaro
. So that of course is part of it as well.Share
Oliver Stuenkel
20:49
Yeah, I agree with
Sarah
, that there's a lot that we don't know yet, and these things usually sort of trickle andcome, you know, reveal themselves over the next months and years of what was really behind this situation, of course. There is a concern, I think, that Bolsonaro
is cornered now.Share
21:09
Part of his reshuffle was clearly democracy working the way it should, actually, with the president having to accommodate uh new realities in
Congress
and being criticized and having to let go of cabinet ministers who are not doing their job properly.Share
21:28
There was a lot of criticism against of the Foreign Minister for not being more helpful in acquiring vaccines, and in fact that I think has contributed
Bolsonaro's
declining approval ratings. Is that a lot of information now has come out that Bolsonaro
has not been proactive in signing vaccine deals throughout 2020. You know, he was not as fast as other countries and I think the Foreign Minister had a key role in that sense.Share
21:57
Now, the other element of this reshuffle and support's more worrisome because he's cornered, but he's also, I think, more concerned about having loyalists around him, having a new Minister of Justice who is very close to him, having a new attorney general who's very close to him. All his all his four sons are under investigation. Again, you know, for issues like embezzlement of public funds, nepotism, etcetera.
Share
22:25
So, I think there's also concern that he wants to make sure that as
Brazil
is moving into this very uncertain territory of political upheaval, economic instability, he wants to make sure that the people around him are 100% loyal. And some of, you know, some analysts have said that this may be Bolsonaro
preparing for some kind of Brazilian January 6th, where, he may end up not accepting a potential election defeat next year in October.Share
22:59
A lot of people point to comments he has made about potential voter fraud without actually providing much evidence, which is a narrative that I think the president is trying to produce and defend, which is that sort of some dark forces produced this, you know, illegitimate President of
the United States
.Share
23:20
Bolsonaro
was one of the last leaders in the world to congratulate Biden
. And now these same dark forces are coming down to Brazil
to also steal the election from Bolsonaro.
And that Trump was unable to hold onto the presidency because the armed forces weren't on his side.Share
23:40
So I agree with
Sarah
that there was some kind of push back from the Armed forces, but you could also say, you know, Bolsonaro
may have made this move to make sure that the armed forces are more aligned with him and react differently from their US counterparts if something like January 6 were to happen in Brazil
in the course of the next year after the election.Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
24:04
Well, it's funny, isn't it? Because the immediate message that the armed forces sent in this Defense Minister either being kicked out or resigning or however it happened was "we're preserving the institution, we are supporting democracy, we're not going to go off on some adventure with
Bolsonaro
that would involve the armed forces going into the streets and pulling open the doors of businesses and allowing people to be out there against the social distancing measures.Share
24:45
However, that doesn't necessarily tell us anything about how they might react in the case of something like what you're describing,
Oliver
. And I think that there is a real question. The military is in very deep. The military went in. We had a column in The Economist
this week that my colleague wrote about um something that the brotherof Geisel, one of the military dictators said, which was it's very easy to for the military to get into government, but to get into politics, but i 's very difficult to get out.Share
25:25
So at this point, what would happen if if
Bolsonaro
tried to pull something? I think, I mean, I think there's a lot of variables between now and 2022. But I guess the military has always been very concerned with keeping order and keeping control. And were there to be a situation where things truly got out of control in, you know, in the way that they did in the US?Share
25:52
Or in a unique Brazilian way, with unique Brazilian factors, including, you know, the presence of organized crime groups called militias, and military police, you know, a large chunk of which is loyal to the president? It's hard to know exactly how that would play out.
Share
Oliver Stuenkel
26:14
Yeah, I think that I agree with that. I think in those moments, it 's a lot depends on individual decisions. Whether, you know, generals would personally sort of stand in front of
Congress
and say, you know, nobody we'll pass, will be able to enter Congress
without, you know, attacking me first.Share
26:34
There 's more than 6000 retired or active duty generals in government, a lot of them, as you know, heads of state led companies, of ministries. So the armed forces enjoy tremendous privilege. And if you look at other countries, like Venezuela, for example, I don't think the armed forces were all along supportive of what's happening, but they were kind of lulled in by
Chavez
and then by Maduro
into accepting a lot of responsibility and I think the armed forces right now are torn.Share
27:14
Some of them say: this government is, you know, terrible, we need to get out! And the others say: we need to actually get in even more to fix things. You know, so I've heard politicians say that, you know,
Bolsonaro
is sort of the Brazilian armed forces Vietnam. But I think that's also a bit being too soft on the armed forces because they have been aware of a Bolsonaro
has been saying for two years.Share
27:38
So one other interpretation could be that the armed forces sort of giving some pushback is that they're jumping ship, or they're at least trying to preserve or they want to keep the option of jumping ship, because they realize that
Bolsonaro
is becoming increasingly unpopular.Share
27:55
So once he's being removed from office or lose the election, then this episode could also help them to say: see? We were distancing ourselves. So that the negative legacy of Bolsonaro's presidency doesn't affect the armed forces. I think they mean that maybe a play that they're sensing that the president is losing power.
Share
Brian Hanson
28:18
So, as we come to a close with this conversation, I want to ask both of you to help us understand where to pay attention in this really fast moving and evolving situation. We did an episode on
Brazil
in July, and the situation, as you've laid it out, has changed a lot since then, and will continue to develop.Share
28:37
One of the things tha 's noticeable, if you could comment on it, and
Brazil
is, I believe, since the return to democracy in 1989, about a third of the presidents have been impeached. So is the legislature likely to take an important role? And where else should we be looking to understand what the most likely outcomes are for Brazil.
And Sarah
, I'll start with you.Share
Sarah Maslin Nir
28:58
Well, we started out talking about the Brazilian people and why it was that people still supported Bolsonaro even with him denying this pandemic and not taking the measures necessary. And I think that a lot is going to depend on the people in on the support for
Bolsonaro
, which of course has a lot to do with the economy and whether they're able to kind of get this seemingly uncontrollable virus under control.Share
29:29
But one thing that, you know, you come to learn about
Brazil
is that a lot of the institutions in this country have their ears very open to public opinion. And you saw the judiciary, you know, over the past kind of six or seven years go from being a kind of client judiciary aligned with politicians, to being one that embraced the anti-corruption fight for a while and then now has come back and is being more critical of that anti-corruption fight.Share
30:01
You know, you've seen how
Congress
has impeached as you said, a couple of presidents and recently the leader of the lower house of Congres, who is a Bolsonaro ally, at least for the time being said, you know, if we don't get this under control, you know, there might be some reason to question Bolsonaro's
fate.Share
30:24
He basically made a reference that suggested that the Congress would be willing to impeach if it got really bad. So I guess I would say, you know, a lot is going to depend on on on the people and then a lot is going to depend on both scenarios' behavior as well and that's really hard to predict and
Oliver.
Share
Oliver Stuenkel
30:43
So, I think the past week showed that Congress is not willing to accept whatever
Bolsonaro
does, like Sarah
said. I think pressure on him to moderate is significant also from the business community. We did have, which is very unusual, business leaders, lots of them, publicly asking Bolsonaro
to be more moderate and to be more effective in fighting the pandemic.Share
31:06
That is not the same as in
the United States
. For you and Brazil
as a business leader to criticize the president can get you in a lot of trouble. First of all, I mean the public sector is very important, but you know, there 's a lot of ways in which government can make businesses life very difficult, once they realize the CEO of that company is critical of the president. So you're really sticking your neck out to some extent there.Share
31:31
The big question to me is, will
Bolsonaro
moderate for real, or is this just another, you know, short term sort of attempt to assuage some of the moderate voters before he gets back to sort of mobilizing his radical supporters, which he usually does in front of the presidential palace when sort of people randomly asked him questions and he says crazy things?Share
31:55
Like, a few days ago, that the way to solve the pandemic is to give money to the media, so that they just stopped reporting on this stuff, right? That gives a sense to business leaders and also to the international observers that this guy is really up to governing the country, like he's not keeping.
Share
32:09
So there 's this big question, is there a
Bolsonaro
2.0, right? That a lot of people also ask with Trump, right? Is there a way to make him sort of focus on governing or not? I think that's the key that we have to look for.Share
32:26
And the other issue is, to what extent can
Bolsonaro
assure that when he says those things, the armed forces will be quiet? Because I think in the sort of best way, sorry for Bolsonaro, he will be able to assure, people think there are, you know, the armed forces kind of ambiguous, may support it may not.Share
32:46
That 's what helps him a lot when he threatens the Supreme Court, when he threatens Congress. Because people say, "well, we may have to accept what he's saying because he's got the army behind him. " So if I think the generals, the new generals, are quiet whenever
Bolsonaro
says "my armed forces" or, you know, these clearly authoritarian things, that may be a sign that he's stronger again.Share
33:11
And the final issue that
Sarah
related to is referred to are the state led police forces which are very pro-Bolsonaro
. They're questioning the authority of their governors, there have been mutinies over the past years. And there's some signs that Bolsonaro
is actively seeking to instigate mutinies by these police forces against the governors, who are according to constitution in control of those police forces.Share
33:36
And
Bolsonaro
is trying to change that in order to concentrate control over all these police forces in Brasilia. And those may be groups that could be decisive, if Bolsonaro attempts to pull off some kind of rupture, democratic rupture. I think it's important to pay attention to potential uprisings that may emerge across Brazil
led by the police.Share
Brian Hanson
34:04
Oliver Stuenkel
of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation
and Sarah Maslin
, of The Economist
. I want to thank you both for being on Deep Dish and helping us understand the rapidly evolving situation in Brazil.
Share
34:16
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Brian Hanson
Oliver Stuenkel
Sarah Maslin Nir